Added on: October 26, 2012
Whether automated or created by a meteorologist, there’s no argument that forecasts are not always spot on. But that does not mean the trend in the forecast is also inaccurate. In fact, the forecast trend may be just as important to consider as the specific forecast itself especially when looking at a prediction valid 12 or more hours in the future. In some cases the forecast was quite good, but the timing of the event suffered. In other words, the guidance turned out to be right on the money simply by shifting the original forecast by a couple of hours either direction. This type of error is present in many forecasts pilots use including forecast soundings. This workshop will examine how timing plays a vital role using forecast soundings to predict an overcast cloud deck.