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        <title>Welcome to The Weather Report </title>
        <description>Are you a pilot or CFI interested in gaining a deeper understanding about aviation weather? Do you want to get beyond a standard briefing from Lockheed Martin Flight Services or DUATS?  Got a burning question about an aviation weather topic?  Want to ask a question about a workshop?  Or just want to learn more about aviation weather?  Post it here.  Not a member of AvWxWorkshops.com?  Become a Regular member or Elite member now and start enjoying the unique benefits this site has to offer.   &lt;strong&gt;Note:  You must be a paid Regular or Elite Member to post messages in these discussion forums&lt;/strong&gt;.</description>
        <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/index.php</link>
        <lastBuildDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 06:54:17 -0400</lastBuildDate>
        <generator>Phorum 5.2.7</generator>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,531,531#msg-531</guid>
            <title>(tu) SkewTLogPro app is now available on iTunes! (1 reply)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,531,531#msg-531</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ While you can get Skew-T log (p) diagrams on your iPad and iPhone in the form of gif images <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/gifs/">here</a>, a new app released on May 3, 2012 takes that basic function to a new level.  It's called <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.skewtlogpro.com/">SkewTLogPro</a> and is available in the App Store for $6.99.  Here is a quick review of SkewTLogPro.<br />
<br />
The good.<br />
<br />
1.  What I like about this app is the clarity of the diagrams presented.  All of the lines in the diagram are crisp and clear especially when you zoom in on the diagram with a double tap or standard zooming features on the iPad and iPhone.  <br />
2.  You can plot a Skew-T log (p) diagram for your current location with a single touch of the button. <br />
3.  After plotting a diagram, the app allows you to swipe back and forth to look at soundings valid in the near future or recent past.<br />
4.  There's a feature that stores your most recent airport selections.<br />
5.  After plotting a diagram, there's a very slick capability to see the values in tabular form of each level presented on the diagram.  This includes pressure, temperature, dewpoint temperature, pressure altitude, wind direction and wind speed.  You can swipe up and down to scroll through the pressure levels.  Alternately, there's a vertical selection bar on the right side of the data to allow quick access to the data at a specific pressure level.<br />
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The bad.<br />
<br />
1.  The app only gets you three hours worth of forecasts and only goes back three hours in the past whereas the online version has a more robust number of soundings.  <br />
2.  Be careful of spell correction.  It's easy to type in an airport identifier only to have it correct the spelling to a valid (but different) airport.  This isn't the fault of this app per se, just an unfortunate side-effect. <br />
3.  Valid times listed on the charts are based on the time you graph the diagram rather than the actual time the data is valid.  Forecasts and previous analyses are then based off of that time.  <br />
4.  There doesn't seem to be a quick way to clear the recent airport selection list. <br />
5.  The resulting graph does not tell you the location of the sounding in reference to the actual airport or lat/long chosen.  <br />
6.  Times shown on the diagram appear to be local time and not based on UTC.  <br />
<br />
All in all, this is a good app to have if you are a pilot.  I suspect over time, the app will continue to be developed to add more features.  <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Here is a zoomed in image of a diagram.  Makes an easy read even for those of us with bad eyesight.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=161,filename=Zoom.PNG" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=161,filename=Zoom.PNG" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Notice in this sounding that the time listed on the diagram is <strong class="bbcode">11:52:36</strong>.  That's actually the same as the time shown at the top on the iPad representing the current time (11:52 am).  Although this diagram was likely valid at 11:00:00 - but there's no way to tell.    <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=167,filename=Time.PNG" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=167,filename=Time.PNG" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
When entering an Airport ID, you are provided with a list of the recent airports used.  A time saver for sure.  Same is true when entering a lat/long.  <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=164,filename=Recents.PNG" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=164,filename=Recents.PNG" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Here's what a GIF image from the online source would look like on the iPad.  While not too bad in clarity it is easy to see that SkewTLogPro is much more crisp.  This is especially important when viewing these diagrams on an iPhone.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=168,filename=GIF.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=168,filename=GIF.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
After graphing a diagram, simply tap the Values button and you'll get a scrollable text window of the data for individual pressure levels.  <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=166,filename=Values.PNG" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=166,filename=Values.PNG" /></center>]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 13:57:36 -0400</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,520,520#msg-520</guid>
            <title>Step up those nighttime pilot reports... (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,520,520#msg-520</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ From the folks at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC)...<br />
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>The Aviation Weather Center (AWC) is conducting a research project on low level turbulence away from the influences of terrain and in the presence of stronger wind. The AWC is requesting pilots, controllers, and dispatchers make an extra effort to provide PIREPs below 12,000 feet during the nighttime hours--primarily from 0200 UTC through 1100 UTC. This includes reports of negative turbulence as well. The focus of this project runs across the central plains; from Texas to Canada, between the Rockies and the Ohio River Valley, but any nighttime PIREP is greatly appreciated. The project runs through September 1, 2012.<br/></div></blockquote>]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:35:32 -0400</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,518,518#msg-518</guid>
            <title>RUC to RAP fallout (6 replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,518,518#msg-518</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ Of course, nothing ever goes smoothly.  Today (<strong class="bbcode">May 1, 2012</strong>) at <strong class="bbcode">12Z</strong>, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model was effectively turned off and the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model took its place.  However, with this change will likely come with some issues like is being seen right now on ADDS. The Winds/Temps aloft graphics <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/">here</a> are frozen at 11Z.  Either they did not consider this impact or they are having difficulty with the operational changeover.  <span style="color: #FF0000">(* Please note that the winds/temps aloft issue on ADDS has been corrected.)</span>  <br />
<br />
It appears that the Op40, Op20, Bak40 and Bak20 selection on the <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov">RUC soundings Java tool</a> will eventually disappear.  There hasn't been any schedule set when this will happen.  I am being told that the RUC will continue to be run through the summer and you should still have all of the input sources available.  For now, when selecting the Op40, you are actually getting the Bak40 sounding at this point.  However, if you are interested in using the new RAP model as the input data source or you can use the <strong class="bbcode">RR1h</strong> data source for soundings from the new model.  <br />
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It appears the Currrent Icing Product (CIP), Forecast Icing Product (FIP) and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) product found on ADDS that all used the RUC model has made the transition successfully.  There may be other issues over the next few weeks that manifest themselves due to this change.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2012 16:28:00 -0400</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,513,513#msg-513</guid>
            <title>Weather analysis for an accident of a Cirrus SR22 near Newcomerstown, Ohio (2 replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,513,513#msg-513</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ <span style="color: #FF0000">Disclaimer:</span>  Please note that the analysis to follow may contain errors and omissions.  It has been prepared for educational purposes only and does not reflect the view of the NWS, NTSB, FAA or any of their personnel, agencies or organizations.  If you would like to learn more about aviation weather, please visit [<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com">avwxworkshops.com</a>].  You can <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/register.php">register</a> as a Regular member for as little as $39.    <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
On the morning of April 21, the pilot of a Cirrus SR22 departed Somerset Airport (KSMQ) in north-central New Jersey at about 10:13 a.m. based on <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N110EB">Flightaware</a>.  The flight was headed to Ohio State University Airport (KOSU) in central Ohio.  It is reported to have crashed short of its destination just to the southeast of Newcomerstown, Ohio in east-central Ohio (within the white circle as depicted on the Flightaware track below). The pilot was the only occupant and was fatally injured in the crash.  The accident occurred at approximately12:22 pm (1622Z) on April 21st based on news reports of calls to 911 and FAA preliminary accident data.  What follows a preliminary analysis of the weather at the time of the accident.  <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=150,filename=Flightaware-Track.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=150,filename=Flightaware-Track.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
It is important to understand that a very active weather pattern was beginning to emerge in the eastern third of the U.S.  At 18Z, a split flow regime exists as shown in the 500 mb (~18,000 ft) chart below.  The axis of a neutral-tilted trough in the northern branch is moving east out of the Ohio Valley and digging south bring cold air down from Canada.  The trough in the southern branch has a closed circulation and beginning to fill with colder air and is expected to phase with the northern branch producing a very intense nor'easter-type weather system along the east coast that will impact the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes on Monday with moderate to heavy snow in western New York and western Pennsylvania. <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=142,filename=500mb.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=142,filename=500mb.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
At 15Z, the mean sea level surface analysis chart shows a long cold front running down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.  A low pressure located in the Gulf of Mexico will be the primary low pressure expected to move to the north-northeast and rapidly deepen off the Carolina coast on Sunday night.     <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=143,filename=Surface-15Z.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=143,filename=Surface-15Z.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
This visible satellite image valid at 1615Z (shortly before the time of the accident) shows ample moisture in the form of overcast cloud cover in association with the cold front.  Notice that most of the clouds are <u class="bbcode">in the colder</u> air to the west of the cold front.  Important clue for structural icing concerns.   <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=144,filename=1615Z-Vis-Satellite.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=144,filename=1615Z-Vis-Satellite.gif" /></center> <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
As of 1555Z, there were <strong class="bbcode">no</strong> convective SIGMETs active along the route from New Jersey to Ohio, however, the clouds shown in the visible satellite image above are producing light rainfall along and the west of the cold front as can be seen by this radar mosaic valid at 1618Z.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=145,filename=Radar-Mosaic.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=145,filename=Radar-Mosaic.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
This radar image below from the Pittsburgh NWS NEXRAD Doppler radar also shows the light precipitation located in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.  The accident site is located near some very light precipitation returns about 20 miles south-southwest of Harry Clever Field Airport (KPHD).<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=151,filename=1619Z-Radar-Accident-Site.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=151,filename=1619Z-Radar-Accident-Site.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
This precipitation was falling to the surface as light rain with ceilings in the marginal VFR category around the time of the accident. <br />
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KPHD 211653Z AUTO 34006KT 5SM <strong class="bbcode">RA</strong> BR SCT010 SCT015 OVC021 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP126 P0007 T00610039 =<br />
KPHD 211648Z AUTO 34004KT 5SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> SCT014 OVC020 06/03 A2990 RMK AO2 P0006 =<br />
KPHD 211626Z AUTO 34008KT 3SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> BR FEW007 OVC014 06/03 A2989 RMK AO2 P0004 =<br />
<span style="color: #FF0000">KPHD 211615Z AUTO 33006KT 2 1/2SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> BR OVC010 06/03 A2989 RMK AO2 P0002 =</span><br />
KPHD 211553Z AUTO 33006KT 7SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> OVC010 06/03 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP124 P0000 T00560033 TSNO =<br />
KPHD 211453Z AUTO 33008KT 10SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> OVC012 06/03 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP120 P0003 60011 T00560033 53013 =<br />
KPHD 211353Z AUTO 32008KT 10SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> OVC010 06/03 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP115 P0004 T00560033 =<br />
KPHD 211326Z AUTO 36005KT 7SM <strong class="bbcode">-RA</strong> BKN010 BKN013 OVC025 06/03 A2985 RMK AO2 P0003 =<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The freezing level at the departure airport around 14Z was approximately 11,000 feet.  The pilot was <strong class="bbcode">headed in a direction</strong> where the freezing level was lowering with altitude based on this freezing level analysis below valid at 1600Z.  Assuming the pilot was flying at at constant altitude at 8,000 feet (based on the <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N110EB/history/20120421/1500Z/KSMQ/KOSU/tracklog">Flightaware track log</a>), this meant the pilot would eventually enter a region of temperatures at or below freezing crossing through the northern portion of the West Virginia panhandle.  Given the precipitation shown above and sounding analyses shown below, there was plenty of visible moisture at 8,000 feet.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=147,filename=2012042116_ruc00hr_lvl_frzg.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=147,filename=2012042116_ruc00hr_lvl_frzg.gif" /></center> <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
This trend toward lower freezing levels is represented nicely by looking at sounding analyses for Pittsburgh (KPIT) in western Pennsylvania, Wheeling, West Virginia (KHLG) and Harry Clever Field Airport (KPHD) in eastern Ohio (and close to the accident site).  At 16Z, the freezing level for Pittsburgh is about 8,300 feet as shown below.  Note that only one freezing level exists.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=153,filename=PIT-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=153,filename=PIT-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" /></center><br />
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A little further west, the sounding analysis for Wheeling also at 16Z shows a freezing level roughly at 8,200 feet.  Again, note that only one freezing level exists. <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=154,filename=HLG-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=154,filename=HLG-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" /></center><br />
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Lastly, near the accident site, the sounding analysis at 16Z for Harry Clever Field (KPHD) shows a freezing level at 7,600 feet and two additional freezing levels exist below.  <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=148,filename=PHD-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=148,filename=PHD-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" /></center> <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The freezing level analysis above suggests a very rapid change from about 8,000 feet down to 3,000 feet just to the west of the West Virginia panhandle.  Given such an abrupt change in the freezing level, this image does not tell you the complete story, unfortunately.  A large lowest freezing level gradient normally suggests there are multiple freezing levels in this area.  The lowest freezing level is about 2,400 feet according to this sounding analysis (below) valid at 16Z about 30 miles to the north of the accident site.  The temperature crosses back over the 0°C isotherm about 3,700 feet and again around 7,600 feet.  The freezing level graphic above only shows the lowest freezing level (* see footnote at the end).  There is the possibility of non-convective SLD (freezing rain) present in a layer between 2,400 feet and 3,700 feet.  Nevertheless, flight at 8,000 feet would result in saturated air at slightly supercooled temperatures (colder than 0°C).  The freezing rain layer below would not be an issue for an IFR flight at 8,000 feet.    <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=148,filename=PHD-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=148,filename=PHD-16Z-Sounding-Analysis.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /> <br />
The official freezing level analysis valid at 15Z issued by a forecaster at the Aviation Weather Center, does show two areas exhibiting multiple freezing levels denoted by the dashed violet polygons.  The closest polygon covering a good portion of central and western Ohio and was anticipated to move to the east with time.  <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=152,filename=G-AIRMET-Frz-Level-15Z.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=152,filename=G-AIRMET-Frz-Level-15Z.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
All of this prompted forecasters at the Aviation Weather Center to issue a G-AIRMET snapshot valid at 15Z for moderate structural icing for the eastern 2/3rd of Ohio and western Pennsylvania from the freezing level through FL180.  The freezing level was forecast to vary from 7,000 to 9,000 feet.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/G-AIRMET-15Z-Apr21.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/G-AIRMET-15Z-Apr21.gif" /></center> <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
While cloud tops were generally high (medium-dark blue colors) in the areas with precipitation, the accident occurred in a region with slightly warmer cloud tops as can be seen by this color-enhanced infrared satellite image valid at 1615Z.  <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=156,filename=1615Z-IR-Satellite-Accident-Site.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=156,filename=1615Z-IR-Satellite-Accident-Site.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The sounding analysis below also shows tops near the accident site transitioning lower to about 20,000 feet with warmer temperatures of about -20°C.  A transition from cold to warmer cloud tops can change the icing scenario entirely from a mixed phase process consisting of mostly  ice crystals mixed with some supercooled liquid water to a mostly or all-liquid process (referred to as non-classical SLD).   <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=157,filename=17Z-Accid-Site-Tops.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=157,filename=17Z-Accid-Site-Tops.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The Current Icing Product (CIP) showed some potential for light to moderate structural icing at 9,000 feet based on this icing analysis valid at 16Z.  Little icing potential was shown at 7,000 feet since temperatures above 0°C existed at 7,000 feet.<br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=158,filename=CIP-16Z-9K.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=158,filename=CIP-16Z-9K.gif" /></center><br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
With respect to structural icing, the devil is very much in the details.  While we do not know if structural icing or weather was a causal or contributing factor in this accident, the environment was certainly primed for a nasty icing situation.  Notice that in this sounding analysis valid at 16Z and very close to the accident site that the freezing level is slightly below 8,000 feet and there is a distinct temperature inversion from 2,500 feet to 6,500 feet.  A temperature inversion such as this can keep the clouds above very clean.  The result of such an environment is fewer, but larger cloud drops.  Larger drops are more hazardous in that they can collect on many more surfaces and penetrate the boundary layer on the wings and vertical stabilizer well behind the leading edges.  Often, automated icing diagnostics such as CIP may not always pick up on these features and some aircraft can have a difficult time removing this kind of runback ice especially when it is severe.        <br />
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<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=160,filename=16Z-Accid-Site.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=160,filename=16Z-Accid-Site.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" />(*) The lowest freezing level graphic used to show areas with multiple freezing levels as hatched regions as outlined in <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTY1">this</a> member workshop.  I believe this feature has been missing from the freezing level graphics on the ADDS website for nearly a year.  I've reported this to the Aviation Weather Center and they have yet to correct this issue.  It is important to always check the official G-AIRMET freezing level graphic which indicates areas that contain multiple freezing levels.<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
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Please check back for additional updates as the NTSB performs their investigation.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Mon, 23 Apr 2012 14:50:41 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,512,512#msg-512</guid>
            <title>Good example of meridional flow (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,512,512#msg-512</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ This is a good example of meridional flow.  This is an amplified ridge-trough pattern with a ridge in the western U.S. and a trough in the eastern U.S.  For the end of April, this is quite an unusual situation.  We see this kind of pattern during the months from the end of November through early March.  This trough in the east will likely produce over 12" of snow through western NY, western PA, western MD and northern WV.  Crazy weather for the end of April...<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=141,filename=Trough-Ridge.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=141,filename=Trough-Ridge.gif" /></center>]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Sat, 21 Apr 2012 17:38:25 -0400</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?1,501,501#msg-501</guid>
            <title>(tu) Basic workshop table of contents (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?1,501,501#msg-501</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ <hr class="bbcode" /><center class="bbcode"><span style="font-size: large"><span style="color: #0000FF">AvWxWorkshops.com Basic Workshops Table of Contents</span></span></center><br />
<br />
The growing library of <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com">AvWxWorkshops.com</a> contains dozens of bite-sized aviation weather workshops ranging from 5 to 20 minutes in length.  Below you will find a brief description of every basic "bite-sized" workshop available within the library. Each description contains a link to the details page of that workshop.  Feel free to use this table of contents to locate a topic of interest by searching this webpage.  Regular and Elite members of AvWxWorkshops.com can login and freely view all of these basic workshops as many times as you'd like.  If you are not a member, please feel free to <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/register.php">register</a> now.  Note that this table of contents does <strong class="bbcode">not</strong> include a description for any <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshops-titles.php?type=premium">premium workshops</a>.   <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTg4">Using the K Index to assess convective potential</a> - The K Index is a parameter that all pilots learn how to use during their primary training.  However, despite its apparent usefulness, the K Index has a few limitations that need to be understood.  The K Index is not a result of lifting a parcel of air like many other convective indices such as CAPE and the lifted index.  It is best used to identify non-severe convection or heavy convective rain fall events.  This workshop will show how the K Index is derived and identify its key limitations.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTg3">Using loops to assess trends in weather reports and forecasts</a> - The charts and diagrams used by pilots for preflight analysis are all presented in two dimensions.  However, adding the dimension of time will enhanced the effectiveness of your preflight weather briefings.  This can be done by using looping constructs.  This workshop shows how to leverage common weather products to identify trends in the weather.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTg1">Deciphering those date-time stamps</a> - With all of the choices of preflight weather products available, pilots can have a difficult time identifying how to read those date-time stamps to determine when the product is valid.  There are often multiple dates on the product and some products are valid over a period of time or at a specific time.  This workshop surveys many common weather products to get an edge up on learning how to determine when they are valid.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTgz">Cold stratocumulus clouds</a> - Stratocumulus clouds are ordinarily a few thousand feet thick.  Pilots tend to think they can easily climb or descend through this cloud deck during the cold season especially if they are producing snow.  Well, think again.  There may be a huge risk descending or climbing through a layer of cold stratocumulus clouds.    This workshop presents a case of <u class="bbcode">two</u> Boeing 767s reporting severe rime ice as they descended down through such a cloud deck over Louisville during the overnight hours. <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTgy">Surface analysis tips</a> - The surface analysis chart should be where all pilots start their preflight briefing.  The surface analysis chart can tell us a lot about the surface wind direction and wind speed at our departure and destination airports. This workshop discusses the nuts and bolts of how to use the surface analysis chart issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).  This includes how to leverage the surface analysis chart to assess the wind direction and wind speeds at the surface.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTgx">ASOS precipitation</a> - The purpose of this workshop is to describe a few important limitations of an unattended (AUTO) Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS).  Specifically, an ASOS is incapable of reporting drizzle (DZ) or freezing drizzle (FZDZ) at this time.  At some locations, however, a trained observer can augment the report to include drizzle or freezing drizzle.   <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTgw">Using AIRMET Zulu during the cold season</a> - This workshop uses a flight planning scenario to illustrate  how to properly utilize AIRMET Zulu during the winter months.  AIRMETs have important limitations.  They are time-smeared forecasts valid over a range of 6 hours.  As a result, if the AIRMET area is large, it may be that only a small portion of the total AIRMET area may be affected at any one time.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTc5">Precipitation forecasts:  Accumulated versus instantaneous</a> - There are two kinds of precipitation forecasts you will typically use.  One is an accumulated precipitation forecast valid over a range of time and the other is associated with precipitation coverage valid at a specific time.  This workshop explains how to properly use these two types of precipitation forecasts.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTc4">Common errors in the FBWinds forecast</a> - While the FBWinds may be the "official" NWS/FAA products for temperatures and winds aloft, it does have some inherent limitations that all pilots should know about.  Using a flight planning scenario associated with the passing of a cold front, this workshop illustrates how using the official FBWinds forecast can result in a 3,000 ft. error in the freezing level.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTc3">Forecasting a low IFR event several days in advance</a> - Whether flying VFR or IFR pilots often have sufficient guidance for determining the threat of IFR conditions on the outbound leg of a round-robin flight.  But what if you are returning in two or three days? Do you want to make this trip at all if the weather is likely to be below your minimums on the return leg?  Using a flight planning scenario, this workshop demonstrates how to use the graphical Model Output Statistics (MOS) to determine the potential for a low IFR event two or three days in the future.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTc2">When will the marine layer retreat?</a> - If you live and fly on the west coast of the U.S., morning fog, known as the marine layer, is very normal part of your preflight planning.  However, if you fly in and out of an airport without a scheduled terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF), how do you know when the fog will dissipate?  Using a proposed departure from the Bay Area in California, this workshop explains how to use the GFS LAMP guidance to identify when the marine layer is likely to retreat.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTc1">Using historical data</a> - Often what has occurred in the recent past can be extremely valuable to a pilot to understand the current weather.  This is expecially true with convective precipitation.  Most websites including the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) do not provide a historical perspective.  Using a flight planning scenario in the Midwest, this workshop provides guidance on how to use historical data to identify that area of precipitation is a convective debris leftover from previous thunderstorms and is safe to fly through.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTcz">VFR convective flight planning</a> - Flying IFR in a convective environment may be challenging for the average instrument pilot.  Often it is beneficial to fly under VFR to provide the greatest flexibility for route and altitude.  Using a flight planning scenario in the Deep South, this workshop demonstrates how to use various NWS convective guidance to plan a flight under VFR when thunderstorms are a flight risk.  This also includes how to select the best altitude for such a flight. <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTcy">Conditions inhibiting a radiation fog event</a> - Pilots are taught that radiation fog (ground fog) can form when the sky is clear, winds are light or calm and the relative humidity is high.  Unfortunately, even when all of these conditions exist, radiation fog may still be inhibited from forming.  That's because the conditions above focus only on what is happening at the surface and do not take into account what is happening just above the surface in the potential fog layer.  This workshop discusses what can keep that radiation fog from forming even though all the "right" ingredients are present.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTcx">Understanding the saturation mixing ratio</a> - The saturation mixing ratio is perhaps the most mysterious of all the lines on a thermodynamic chart called a Skew-T log (p) diagram.  This workshop discusses how to use the saturation mixing ratio to calculate the lifted condensation level (LCL) to determine the bases of most cumuliform clouds.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTcw">High instability with no chance of thunder</a> - Pilots are taught when the lifted index is highly negative that thunderstorms, should be anticipated.  However, that isn't always the case especially when the area of instability is under a ridge of high pressure.  Using a flight scenario in the Midwest, this workshop will illustrate how a ridge such as this will limit afternoon convection keeping the skies clear.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MzM">Non-convective low level wind shear</a> - When a forecast for WS (wind shear) appears in the TAF or is issued by the Aviation Weather Center as part of AIRMET Tango, pilots immediately equate this to a nasty turbulence event.  This is perhaps the most misunderstood forecast provided to pilots.  This workshop explains why a forecast for non-convective low level wind shear is not a forecast for turbulence and why conditions are often glassy smooth.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTY5">Recognizing thin layer turbulence</a> - Most moderate turbulence is often widespread.  Some severe turbulence events, however, occur in rather thin layers.  In fact, it is not unusual for there to be a severe turbulence report just 2,000 feet below a report smooth conditions.  A thermodynamic chart called a Skew-T log (p) diagram is one of the best ways to diagnose thin layer turbulence events.  This workshop provides specific guidance on how to determine the potential for severe thin layer turbulence.    <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTY4">Thunderstorm symbology</a> - The present weather symbols used by graphical METARs Java Tool found on the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) website do not always tell the complete story.  In fact, when thunderstorms are being reported in the airport's vicinity while rain is being reported within the terminal area, don't count on seeing a thunderstorm symbol.  This workshop discusses why it's important to always look at the textual METAR instead of relying strictly on the graphical representation.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTY3">Using the standard lapse rate to estimate the freezing level</a> - The standard lapse rate is one of the aviation rules of thumb that gets drilled into most pilots.  In fact, it is very common for pilots to use this lapse rate for preflight planning purposes such as calculating the freezing level based solely on the surface temperature.  The standard lapse rate should never be used for this purpose.  This workshop will demonstrate a more accurate and consistent approach on how to determine the freezing level.   <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTY2">Estimating wind gusts</a> - Airports served by a terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) have a detailed forecast for wind direction, wind speed and wind gust potential.  However, if you are not flying into an airport served by a TAF, you will not have a site-specific forecast for wind.  This workshop identifies how to use a thermodynamic chart called a Skew-T log (p) diagram to estimate the wind gust potential at the surface.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTY1">Multiple freezing levels</a> - During the cold season it is not uncommon for there to be multiple freezing levels.  While multiple freezing levels are not always a sign of adverse weather, it is typically a common requirement for the development of freezing rain (FZRA).  This workshop illustrates several ways to accurately identify the potential for multiple freezing levels on your preflight analysis.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTYz">Convective SIGMETs</a> - It may not always be obvious, but not all thunderstorms will meet convective SIGMET criteria.  Once the criteria is met, a forecaster at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) will issue a convective SIGMET.   Most importantly, convective SIGMETs are not a forecast for thunderstorms; instead they represent more of a nowcast placing a fence around thunderstorms that are significant to aviation.  In this workshop we will review the criteria used by this forecaster before a convective SIGMET is issued.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTYy">Collaborative convective forecast product</a> - The CCFP is a seasonal forecast product available on the Aviation Digital Data Service website.  It is produced in collaboration with several commercial entities and government organizations including the Aviation Weather Center, Center Weather Service Units and the airlines.  The criteria used is not the same as convective SIGMETs, so it is not a thunderstorm forecast as most pilots believe.  In fact, this forecast is not well-suited for most general aviation pilots.  This workshop will show why general aviation pilots must be careful in using this forecast for their preflight weather briefing.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTYw">Snow covered ground and the visible satellite image</a> - Most of the time, the visible satellite image is easy to use.  Clouds are generally located wherever you see a shade of white.  It helps the pilot show the extent of the cloud cover and the satellite loop shows their movement.  But, in the winter what looks like clouds may actually be snow on the ground.  This workshop provides some tips to help a pilot to differentiate between clouds and a snow-covered surface.   <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTI5">Lightning-free convection</a> - Most pilots believe that you can only be struck by lightning when there are thunderstorms in close proximity.  What pilots don't realize is that most aircraft fall victim to a lightning strike in regions where no natural lightning is occurring or expected to occur.  The aircraft itself induces the lightning strike.  In fact, it is thought that most airliners average about one lightning strike per year.   This workshop will discuss how to avoid being the victim of an aircraft-induced lightning strike.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTU1">Turbulence in the wake of a cold front</a> - In the wake of a cold front it can get quite windy including some stronger gusts.  Strong winds and gusts normally equate to some moderate turbulence.  However, even though it may be windy at the surface, it is often possible to find an altitude that is nearly smooth without the need for oxygen.  This workshop will demonstrate how to use a Skew-T log (p) diagram to find the altitude with the smoothest ride in the region behind a cold front causing gusty winds at the surface.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTQ5">Surface pressure troughs</a> - When looking at the mean sea level surface analysis chart there are many familiar features.  This includes high and low pressure centers, isobars and frontal systems.  But, there are other elements depicted on this chart such as outflow boundaries and surface pressure troughs that may be unfamiliar.  Surface pressure troughs are quite common, but many pilots don't understand what they may mean from an adverse weather perspective.   This workshop will help to identify what kind of adverse weather you might expect if your proposed flight takes you through a surface trough.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTI3">Graphical TAFs</a> - Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) are a textual forecast.  Consequently, when examining the TAFs along their proposed route most pilots will simply view the text for each TAF.  However, the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) allows you to view the TAFs in a graphical format similar to the way METARs can be displayed graphically using a station model.  This workshop will explain how to get the most from the ADDS graphical TAF display.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTM2">Freezing rain & thunderstorms</a> - Pilots are taught to always avoid thunderstorms and never to fly into areas of freezing rain.  But what about when they occur together?  When freezing rain occurs there is generally a very stable layer (temperature inversion) near the surface.  This kind of stability typically will squash any chance of thunderstorms.  But, there are times where warm air can ride up and over the cold, dense air at the surface producing elevated convection.  This workshop will discuss the conditions that can produce both freezing rain and thunderstorms.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTIz">Echo top  heights</a> - Echo top heights are produce by the same NWS NEXRAD Doppler radars that produce the familiar base reflectivity product.  The echo top product is also available in the satellite weather broadcast.  Echo tops are primarily used by meteorologists to determine the heights of thunderstorms.  Higher tops are indicative of convective turbulence.  While they do generally define the top of the echo region in a precipitating cloud, they are not the same as cloud tops and should never be used as such.  This workshop explains why they can provide misleading information when determining if it is safe to fly through an area of precipitation.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTI4">Convective outflow boundaries</a> - Cold, dense air is the exhaust of deep, moist convection.  As this cold air exits the thunderstorm from below and hits the ground to spread out like pancake batter poured on a griddle.  The edge of this outflow is a gust front that moves quickly away from the thunderstorm.  Most outflow boundaries are benign, but there are some important aspects to consider.  This workshop discusses a convective outflow boundary and provides some guidance on when pilots should be concerned flying through one of these outflow boundaries.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTE4">Anomalous propagation</a> - We can't look at a NEXRAD image and take the image too seriously.  Not everything presented on this image is real precipitation reaching the surface.  In some cases, the radar beam is bent or ducted in a way that causes it to strike the ground far from the radar site producing what appears as precipitation returns that can resemble the appearance of thunderstorms.  The phenomenon is referred to as anomalous propagation or AP.   In some situations this can be successfully filtered by the radar, but not always.  This workshop explains the reasons for anomalous propagation and how to recognize it on a NEXRAD image.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTE5">Satellite weather gone bad</a> - Pilots are becoming more and more comfortable making flights since they've had the ability to see near real time weather while en route all courtesy of the satellite weather broadcast from XM Radio.  The composite NEXRAD image is probably one of the most valuable products that gets broadcast.  Every 5 minutes a new update is received allowing the pilot to see the location of areas of precipitation.  But is that image something you can trust?  Not always.  This workshop will demonstrate how some returns presented on your satellite weather display may not be real precipitation.  Also, discussed is how an over zealous filter may remove real areas of precipitation including severe thunderstorms.    <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTQ4">Clear air turbulence</a> - Turbulence is largely a function of vertical mixing in the atmosphere.  If air is moving up and/or down, the chances of turbulence is increased.  Turbulence can occur within clouds, but it also frequently occurs in cloud-free areas.  As a result, this is referred to as clear air turbulence.  While most clear air turbulence is moderate or less, occasionally, it can get severe or extreme.  Even so, it remains difficult to forecast.  Nevertheless, knowing the patterns to look for is critical to assessing the potential for clear air turbulence.  This workshop will discuss what to look for on a constant pressure chart and Skew-T log (p) diagram to identify signatures for significant clear air turbulence.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTQz">Using the infrared satellite image to determine cloud tops</a> - There are very few sources to determine the altitude of the tops of a cloud deck.  The area forecast and pilot reports are two great resources.  However, pilot reports of tops are not always available and the area forecast is a textual product and doesn't have the best temporal and spatial resolution.  The color-enhanced infrared satellite image provides cloud tops temperatures which can be used to determine the actual cloud tops.  This workshop will show how to use the color-enhanced infrared satellite image along with other resources to accurately depict the height of most cloud tops.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTQy">Forecast soundings over water</a> - When using the RUC soundings Java tool to show the future vertical profile of temperature and dewpoint, it's important to understand that the sounding isn't always valid right over the airport you entered.  In fact, if you are using an airport near a body of water such as a lake, bay or ocean, you may find that the point that is shown in the diagram is over the water.  This can produce a substantially different sounding than if over land.  This workshop will identify the differences that can occur between a sounding over the water and one that is over land.    <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=Mzg">Graphical AIRMETs</a> - Graphical AIRMETs or G-AIRMETs are a relatively new product issued by the Aviation Weather Center  (AWC).  It is issued by the same forecasters that issue the traditional text-based en route advisories known as AIRMETs.  AIRMETs have limitations that are not completely understood by many pilots.  They are time-smeared forecasts that are valid over a six hour period which provides a poor spatial and temporal resolution.  G-AIRMETs, on the other hand, are snapshots defining the expected coverage of the adverse weather element valid at a specific time.  This workshop will introduce the G-AIRMET product and identify how it is different from the traditional AIRMET text.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTQw">Using GFS and NAM model output statistics</a> - Terminal forecasts (TAFs) are the only site-specific forecast available to pilots.  However, thousands of airports are not served by a TAF.  Model output statistics or MOS from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models provide site specific forecasts for over 1700 airports throughout the U.S.  This workshop will demonstrate how to leverage these forecasts and read the tabular MOS bulletin.    <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTM5">Freezing rain depth</a> - Freezing rain is one adverse weather element that should get every pilots attention...even those flying large turbojet aircraft.  Many pilots are taught when encountering freezing rain, climbing is the best choice.  It is explained that initiating a climb will put them into the warmer air aloft that is melting the falling snow into rain.  What pilots don't appreciate is that freezing rain is truly a "ground-hugging" phenomenon.  This workshop will explain how a freezing rain event occurs and how to determine its depth on a Skew-T log (p) diagram.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTM4">TAF amendments</a> - Terminal aerodrome forecasts, better known to pilots as TAFs are one of the most detailed aviation forecasts available to pilots.  They are constructed by forecasters located at the local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs).  Even after a particular TAF is issued, the forecaster must continue to monitor the weather to determine if the TAF is still representative of the current and forecast weather within the terminal area.  Once the weather reaches amendment criteria, the forecaster will ordinarily amend the TAF.  This workshop will provide the background on the criteria that is used by forecasters to determine when a TAF should be amended.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTM3">Too cold for structural icing</a> - During the cold season when clouds are present, it is likely that the northern third of the U.S. will be blanketed by AIRMET Zulu warning pilots of the potential for widespread areas of structural icing.  But, just because clouds are present, doesn't imply the presence of supercooled liquid water.  When temperatures are very cold, even in areas of moderate snowfall, structural icing may not be likely as the clouds may be glaciated.  As a result, AIRMET Zulu may not be issued for these areas.  This workshop will explain how cold is "too cold" for the presence of supercooled liquid water.     <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTM0">Calculating the relative humidity using a Skew-T log (p) diagram</a> - The RUC soundings java tool automatically calculates the relative humidity at any altitude where there is temperature and dewpoint data.  The relative humidity is shown as a function of the cursor feature in this tool.  However, you can calculate the relative humidity at locations other than those at specific data points.  This workshop will provide instruction on how to use the saturation mixing ratio to calculate the relative humidity on a Skew-T log (p) diagram.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTMy">A case of bad CIP</a> - Most of the time the Current Icing Product or CIP that is available on the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) will provide a fairly accurate icing analysis at the top of each and every hour.  One advantage that CIP brings to the table is that it uses several observational sources to build the analysis.  This includes surface observations (METARs), pilot reports (PIREPs) NEXRAD radar, lightning data, two hour model forecast parameters and infrared and visible satellite data.  But, CIP can have some issues distinguishing clouds from snow on the ground especially right at sunrise or sunset.  This workshop will examine a case right after sunrise where CIP showed no chance of structural icing in Upstate New York despite reports of moderate icing from pilots in the area.   <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTMx">SPC convective outlooks - Part 2</a> - The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is primarily concerned with severe weather such as severe thunderstorms.  However, they do provide products that forecast the likelihood of general organized convection that is not severe.  When initially issued the Day 1 convective outlook provides a categorical forecast for convection (including severe convection) for a period of 24 hours.   A temporal resolution such as this is not as useful to pilots.  This workshop will introduce an experimental product called the enhanced resolution thunderstorm outlook that provides a probabilistic forecast for thunderstorms that includes a temporal resolution as low as four hours.  <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTMz">Using the VAD wind profile (VWP) for cloud tops</a> - The VAD Wind Profile provides a depiction of the winds with altitude. It is generated by the NWS WSR-88D NEXRAD Doppler radars.   It is used by some pilots to determine the tops or height of a cloud deck.  While it may paint a fairly reasonable depiction of the location of the cloud tops, the VWP is a volumetric sample around the radar site and may not always be representative of the tops, especially the further you are from the radar site.  This workshop will demonstrate how to properly use this product and illustrate some of its inherent limitations.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTMw">Gust fronts on radar</a> - Gust fronts can be highly dangerous to pilots.  They often proceed a line of convection producing strong straight line winds and severe or extreme turbulence.   In some cases, the gust front may appear as a thin line moving ahead of the convection on the NWS NEXRAD Doppler radar image.  These gust fronts can move outward a considerable distance from the primary radar returns associated with the convection.  However, they are seen as lower intensity returns and are ordinarily filtered by satellite weather providers such as XM Radio.  This workshop will show how to identify a gust front on a NEXRAD radar image.      <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTIy">How moisture affect surface-based CAPE</a> - When using a Skew-T log (p) diagram to determine the potential for deep, moist convection, pilots need to understand that a small change in the surface dewpoint temperature can adversely affect the resulting surface-based CAPE value.   If the actual dewpoint temperature is greater than forecast, this may change the entire convective situation in the late afternoon.  This workshop will illustrate just how to change the surface dewpoint on the Skew-T log (p) diagram to see the resulting lifted parcel lapse rate and new CAPE value.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTIx">Using the satellite image on XM-delivered satellite weather</a> - An infrared satellite image is one of the many products available from the XM-delivered satellite weather broadcast.  While it does a fairly good job showing the extent of cloud cover day or night, the broadcast satellite image may not show all clouds.  This is especially true for cloud decks that have tops below 5,000 feet AGL.  This workshop will explain the limitations of this satellite image product and how to recognize the when an overcast cloud deck might not be displayed.<br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTE3">Non-convective LLWS - Part 2</a> - While a forecast for non-convective low level wind shear (LLWS) is ordinarily not a threat for severe or greater turbulence, there are times where it can produce some dangerous conditions for pilots.  This is especially true when it is associated with a strong and developing synoptic weather system.  Non-convective LLWS is a form of vertical speed shear in the atmosphere.  In other words, the wind is forecast to increase rapidly with height.  This workshop will highlight the key elements to look for to determine when non-convective LLWS should be strictly avoided.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTE1">How to get the most from the RUC soundings Java tool</a> - The RUC soundings Java tool allows the pilot to examine the vertical profile of atmospheric temperature and moisture by generating a forecast sounding or analysis on a thermodynamic chart called a Skew-T log (p) diagram.  This diagram can be generated from that data captured during a weather balloon launch known as a rawinsonde observation or a diagram can be generated from the output of a forecast model such as the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC).  The tool itself has many features a few of which are not well documented.  This workshop will expose a few of those features in order to get the most utility out of the tool.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTEz">Upslope stratus</a> - When pilots think of "upslope" stratus, they normally picture air flowing up the side of a mountain range.  However, upslope stratus can be created even by the gentle slope from the middle Mississippi Valley to the central high Plains producing a very widespread IFR event.  This workshop will explain the conditions that may lead to such an event in the Midwest U.S.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTEy">Shallow convective icing</a> - During the early spring it is not uncommon to have a shallow convective icing event unfold just south of the Great Lakes region.  As cold, dense air filters in aloft, early daytime heating can create rather unstable conditions to fuel such an event.  While this is not a deep, moist convective event producing thunderstorms, it can produce some very juicy clouds containing copious amounts of supercooled liquid water.  This workshop will explain how to use the simulated reflectivity product to help identify such an event.  <br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTEw">Airports in the vicinity of higher terrain</a> - The Skew-T log (p) diagram is one of the pilot’s most versatile aviation weather power tools. The Earth Systems Research Laboratory’s Global Systems Division (ESRL/GSD) developed a Java-based tool that will build Skew-T log (p) diagrams based on the output of several numerical weather prediction models including the Rapid Update Cycle or RUC model. It requires more than just interpreting a complex diagram, however. Before the first diagram appears in your browser, understanding how to choose the appropriate initial data source is critical especially when you are trying to assess the potential for fog or low ceilings at an airport in the vicinity of higher terrain. This workshop will examine a case where using the right initial data source makes a huge difference when determining the potential for low IFR conditions at an airport that has rising terrain to the north.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTA5">Stratocumulus clouds</a> - Very few pilots are taught about the dangers of a thin stratocumulus deck.  These clouds are typically produced in the wake of a cold front and are usually only a few thousand feet deep.  Nevertheless, during the cold season they can contain a copious amount of supercooled liquid water especially near the cloud tops.  This workshop will discuss what produces stratocumulus clouds and why they are so dangerous from an icing perspective.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTA4">Predicting an overcast to build down</a> - As a major weather system approaches, it is common for a high overcast to blanket the sky.   As it draws closer, the middle and lower clouds begin to fill in with time.  Eventually, VFR conditions morph into marginal VFR and then eventually drop to IFR or low IFR.  This workshop will demonstrate how to use a Skew-T log (p) diagram to predict the timing of an overcast building down to a low IFR event.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTA2">Air mass modification</a> - Air masses are homogeneous bodies of air with the same temperature and moisture properties across a given line of latitude.  They tend to originate in specific areas where they develop their characteristics.  As air masses move from their source region, they can be modified by the characteristics of the terrain below.  This workshop discusses how the Great Lakes can modify a cold and dry Canadian air mass. <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MzU">30-hour TAFs</a> - For years, TAFs have been only issued out to 24 hours.  However, due to a recent change, the NWS will be issuing TAFs out to 30 hours for 34 high-impact airports throughout the U.S. and its territories.  Adding 6 hours to the total forecast time was in support of long haul operators.  This forecast forced a change in the format of TAFs.  This workshop shows how to read the new coded format for TAFs.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MzY=">How to identify a capped atmosphere</a> - Pilots are taught that thunderstorms develop when there is sufficient moisture, instability and lift.  Some convective indices such as the Lifted Index will only tell you whether or not there is ample moisture and instability.  It says nothing about the presence of lift.  Using a flight planning example in the Midwest, this workshop explains how thunderstorms are not likely even with a widespread region of very negative lifted indices.   <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=NTE">Who cares about pilot reports?</a> - Pilot reports or PIREPs are one of the most sought after pieces of weather information.  Every pilot report helps other pilots to make good decisions in regard to preflight planning and en route operations.  However, they are not just used by pilots.  This workshop will show how forecasters can also leverage these pilot reports when making or amending forecasts.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=Mzc">Convective outlooks - Part 1</a> - Deep, moist convection also known as thunderstorms are one of the most difficult weather phenomenon to forecast. Depending on the circumstances, forecasting the time and location of the initiation of deep, moist convection is either incredibly difficult or fundamentally impossible. So the best forecasters can do at the moment is to provide general guidance through a probabilistic approach represented by convective outlooks. This workshop explains how use the convective outlook products issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC).      <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MzQ">Convective flight planning</a> - Even after you close the door on the airplane and are ready to depart, weather analysis never stops until you are safely back on the ground.  This is especially important when deep, moist convection is in the forecast.  In addition to all the fancy tools such as satellite-delivered weather, knowing what to look for outside cockpit can help with decisions of route and altitude.  This workshop presents the clues to look for while you are en route to your destination to minimize your exposure to dangerous convective turbulence.    <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=NDY">Using NEXRAD to identify the location of a front</a> - Frontal systems are normally the focal point for deep, moist convection also known as thunderstorms. Using the NEXRAD radar image can be a great way to identify where the front may exist in real time. Fronts are boundaries in the atmosphere that separate two distinctly different air masses consisting of air of differing density defined by temperature and moisture. These density differences may show up readily on the NWS WSR-88D NEXRAD Doppler radar especially if the radar is in clear air mode. This workshop explores one such case where severe storms erupted along a boundary identified on NEXRAD radar.<br />
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<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=NTk">Thunderstorms in the terminal area</a> - Terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs) are a forecast for the meteorological conditions significant to aviation at an airport.  The terminal area is defined as a radius of 5 statute miles from the center of the airport's runway complex.  Given this small area, meteorologists at the local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) are reluctant to issue a forecast for thunderstorms unless there is an overwhelming feeling that thunderstorms will impact the small terminal area.  This workshop will outline the criteria that must be met before meteorologists issue a forecast for thunder in the terminal area.<br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><hr class="bbcode" />]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>General announcements</category>
            <pubDate>Mon, 02 Apr 2012 09:37:58 -0400</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,500,500#msg-500</guid>
            <title>Simulated reflectivity outages (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,500,500#msg-500</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ If you use the simulated reflectivity forecasts from the WRF-NMM contained in the Roadmap, you may notice that the forecasts are out of date quite frequently.  I pinged the developer and here's what he has said - his emphasis.<br />
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>Due to the computing needs of some coming operational implementations, this run likely will become less timely, and will have more missed cycles. Starting 3/20/12, the number of missed cycles will increase SIGNIFICANTLY.<br/></div></blockquote>
<br />
There are many other links in the Roadmap that provide simulated reflectivity.  So feel free to try those out.  In the meantime, I've removed these charts from the QWxik Brief to avoid any confusion.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2012 13:46:48 -0400</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,499,499#msg-499</guid>
            <title>NTSB Academy (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,499,499#msg-499</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ I thought that this quote found on a plaque in front of the NTSB Academy was interesting...<br />
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>From tragedy we draw knowledge to improve the safety of us all.<br/></div></blockquote>
<br />
<img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=138,filename=NTSB-Saying.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=138,filename=NTSB-Saying.gif" />]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2012 07:28:16 -0400</pubDate>
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        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,493,493#msg-493</guid>
            <title>Plane &amp; Pilot interview (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,493,493#msg-493</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Marc Lee of Plane & Pilot.  You can read his article <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.planeandpilotmag.com/proficiency/weather-flying/weather-avoidance-back-to-basics.html">here</a>.  Unfortunately he got a few things wrong and didn't give me a chance to review the article before it was published.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Sat, 10 Mar 2012 20:26:35 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,492,492#msg-492</guid>
            <title>:S How do you identify the tops of those clouds? (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,492,492#msg-492</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ If I had to pick a question that I get the most, this is the one.  <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Premium workshop</strong><br />
<br />
Below is a brief discussion on how to identify the tops of most clouds.  This is a somewhat complex topic and if you want a more complete explanation be sure to purchase the <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTU2">Estimating Cloud Tops</a> premium workshop.  It contains a very thorough explanation and lots of practical examples.  But, here's a short primer on the subject to whet your appetite...<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Don't rely on one source</strong><br />
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First and foremost, you should always arrive at an answer from using multiple sources of information.  <i class="bbcode">Don't put your faith in one single weather product</i>.  Every single-source weather product has its limitations...including PIREPs.  You get your highest quality answers when you integrate all the products together.  Treat it like your instrument scan; don't over rely on one instrument...because one day you'll get burned when it fails or provides conflicting information.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Observation vs forecast vs analysis</strong><br />
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Next, be sure you understand what kind of product you are using.  When you look at a weather product, determine if it is an observation, forecast or analysis.  Some pilots are notoriously bad at this.  <br />
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1.  Observations only tell you about the past and typically tell you about the sensible elements (temperature, moisture, wind, pressure, etc.).  Alone, they tell you nothing about the future.  They can be from sensors (temperature, for example) or human observation (visibility for example).  They can be a few minutes old or they may be hours old.  The fresher an observation and the closer it is to the location of interest, the more useful it is.  Older observations need to be looked at with some skepticism.  Don't discount older observations, just consider them for what they are, older observations.  <br />
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Observations are great for looking at trends in the atmosphere.  Often the weather upstream from the area of interest can provide clues about what might happen downstream an hour or two from now.  <br />
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2.  Of course, forecasts tell you about the future.  A forecast's foundation are observations.  Forecasts can be created by humans (TAFs, area forecasts, short range forecasts, etc.) or can be computer generated from numerical weather prediction models essentially untouched by humans.  They can be valid one hour, three hours or 3 days in the future.  Keep in mind that the forecast you are looking at might be old and valid in the past.  The key here is to be sure you are looking at the latest "run" or the latest issuance of forecasts.  Looking at older forecasts isn't a bad thing; recognize that there might be a newer issuance available that might provide a more recent view of what might happen.<br />
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3.  Analyses are not forecasts and are not typically a set of raw observations.  Most of the time they provide value-added information to the observations.  A weather depiction chart, surface analysis chart, the Current Icing Product (CIP) all are examples of an analysis.  The 00 hour model-based products also are referred to as an analysis that depict the intitial conditions of the forecast models.  Analyses are always valid in the past since they take time to generate.  They could be a few minutes old or may be several hours old by the time they hit the wire.  They may be updated hourly or several times throuhout the day.     <br />
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<strong class="bbcode">Know the valid time of the product</strong>  <br />
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The valid time on any weather product should be the first thing you look at; your eyes should immediately go right to the date-time stamp on product.  If you don't do this, force yourself to do this.  This needs to become a habit.  Just because you click on the NEXRAD loop and for the last 300 times it was the current loop, doesn't mean the 301st time it will be current.    <br />
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Products can be valid at a specific date and time or over a range of times.  I know this can be a source of confusion to many pilots.  Knowing when a product is valid is important to understand how to use the product and its limitations.  AIRMETs and SIGMETs, area forecasts, accumulated precipitation forecasts are all valid over a range of times...often referred to as a time-smeared forecast.  During the winter, AIRMET Zulu for example, can be very large and cover a lot of territory.  However, this doesn't mean that icing exists all through this large area.<br />
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Accumulated precipitation products are often valid over a range of times and some products only list one time in the date-time stamp.  How do you know the valid range?  You have to study the product more closely and determine this before using it.  In most cases, the valid time is the <i class="bbcode">ending</i> time of the range.  So a 3 hour accumulated precipitation product with a time of 2100 UTC is valid from 1800 UTC through 2100 UTC, for example.<br />
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Why all this fanfare just to look at tops?  Because it is important to arriving at the right answer.   <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Surface analysis</strong><br />
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The first thing to do is look at the synoptic picture.  I look at the latest surface analysis from the HPC that tells me a lot about the current state of the atmosphere.  Just like you would look at the NEXRAD loop versus a still image, I also always examine the surface analysis loop over the last 24 hours.  It provides me with a sense of the dynamics of the atmosphere.  What features are strenghening or weakening, what is the direction of movement, is the circulation from a dry or moist source or are the skies clear and winds calm?   <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Constant pressure charts</strong><br />
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Similar to the surface chart, examining the upper air analyses and forecasts is critical to understanding the dynamics driving the weather.  Is there a shift in the wind aloft such that upper level flow is coming from a dry source region versus low level flow that might be coming from a moisture source.  Advective processes normally are responsible for many stratus layers we experience.  <br />
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Is the wind and/or moisture being forced upslope?  Even a gradual upslope from Houston to Denver can produce a fairly thick stratus deck over a broad area without any major players (fronts, areas of low pressure, for example).    <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Stability charts</strong><br />
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This is perhaps the most important element and one that is least understood by most pilots.  Stability is what determines if a weather system will be convective or non-convective.  Sometimes instability is "capped" which can limit the tops of convection.  Knowing where this cap is can often tell you where the tops of the cumulus clouds are located.  Stable layers can produce stratiform clouds that with enough punch can produce drizzle or freezing drizzle aloft.  Most stratus events are near the surface and have very well defined tops.     <br />
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<strong class="bbcode">AIRMETs</strong><br />
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In the winter, AIRMET Zulu might provide some clues as to the extent of the icing layer.  The tops of the icing layer identified in the AIRMET may just be the vertical extent of the clouds.  As I mentioned earlier, AIRMETs are a time-smeared forecast so be careful to know that the entire AIRMET region might not be experiencing tops at the same height as indicated in the AIRMET. <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Satellite</strong><br />
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Cloud top temperatures often tell you the altitude of the highest tops in the area.  Relating temperature to height can be difficult at times, but it's another source to examine.  Remember, this is an observation and tells you nothing about what might happen 3 hours from now.  Just like using any observation, trends in the satellite image loop can tell you how the weather is changing or not changing with time.<br />
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The visible satellite image during daylight hours can tell you about the "texture" of the clouds.  Bumpy looking or wave clouds will let you know the tops might be variable.  Flat looking clouds will imply the tops are probably even.  Keep in mind that flat looking tops might "grow" in height in the direction of rising terrain.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Current Icing Product and Forecast Icing Product</strong><br />
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CIP is an analysis that tells you about the recent past.  It is available 20 minutes past each hour.  Since CIP combines METARs, NEXRAD, lightning, PIREPs and forecast model parameters, it represents a good integration of data.  In the winter, looking at the top of the icing layer shown by CIP might be a good indicator of the tops of the clouds.  Temperature is very important here, so if there are multiple freezing levels, you might see a "no ice" slot and think that's the top of the layer.  In reality you might just be in the "warm nose" between the two freezing levels.  Perhaps not the best place to be and you may not be "on top" either.  <br />
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In a similar way, FIP can help you picture the top of the icing layer in the near future.  FIP produces a 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 hour forecast for the probability of structural icing.  Using a similar strategy as above, knowing the top of the forecast icing layer might provide you with a clue of the tops.    <br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">PIREPs</strong><br />
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PIREPs are of infinite value in my mind.  But limitations do exist and you really must understand these in order to apply them properly.  PIREPs can be miscoded and may not arrive to you in the way the pilot intended.  About 20 percent of the pilot reports I file end up having some mistake...could be aircraft type, altitude, location, etc.  In a variable environment, icing can go from negative to severe just within a 50 mile radius.  Tops can be low on one side of the Lake Michigan and much higher on the other side.    <br />
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PIREPs age with time.  A PIREP that is right near your proposed route is great unless it is two hours old.  The older the PIREP, the less useful it is.  However, if some of the analysis I pointed out above might lead you to believe that the PIREP is still pretty valid given a situation that isn't changing much with time.   Again, it's important to understand the dynamics.  <br />
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PIREPs are also pretty scarce during the overnight hours and early morning hours.  Often the PIREPs are up high or down low and not at the cruise altitudes we need to identify tops.<br />
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<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Echo tops</strong><br />
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Don't try to use these for determining cloud tops.  You'll be disappointed way too many times.  Sure, when good precipitation is falling, they might represent reality.  But if you are flying over a stratus deck, there's little chance this will show up in the echo tops unless the stratus deck has some huge drops and/or precipitation.  It's just not intended to be used for this purpose.<br />
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<strong class="bbcode">Balloon-borne soundings and forecast soundings</strong><br />
<br />
Probably one of the best ways to determine the height of the cloud tops.  There's a big difference intepreting these for a convective situation versus a non-convective cloud deck.  In a convective environment, just trying to compare temperature to the dew point, you might easily miss some serious cumulus clouds.  Convective enviroments require you to take some extra steps to determine where the extent of the cloud tops might be located.  It is possible most of the time...but much harder.  I can teach you in about 5 minutes how to determine stratus cloud tops using soundings.  It will take me 4 hours or longer to just break the surface with evaluating convective cloud tops.<br />
<br />
Balloon-borne soundings are the best to use since they show "actual" conditions.  They are only launched twice a day (before 12Z and before 00Z) and are sparse like the FB wind stations.  Remember, the sensor on the balloon only records what is sees.  If the balloon happened to pop through a hole of a convective environment, it might show a lack of clouds.  Or, a balloon could have risen through a smaller cumulus cloud that is still growing and give you the impression the tops are lower.  <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<strong class="bbcode">Others</strong><br />
<br />
There are many other products that I use from time to time to help me identify the cloud tops.  The important thing is that you need to integrate all of these sources to get the answer and don't simply rely on just one source (a single PIREP that is two hours old) to make your decision.  Hopefully this discussion helps a few folks.<br />
<hr class="bbcode" />]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 09 Mar 2012 14:16:20 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,491,491#msg-491</guid>
            <title>Updraft strength in deep, moist convection (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,491,491#msg-491</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ What is the updraft strength in a mature thunderstorm? <br />
<br />
I don't know if there's ever been studies to know a maximum number.  But the updraft strength or what is called the upward vertical velocity (UVV) in a thunderstorm is directly related to the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE).  CAPE is like pressing down on a big spring.  The more you press down, the more potential energy that is stored.  When it is released, the stored energy is released upward...the more energy, the faster the upward motion.  <br />
<br />
In thunderstorms it's all about buoyant energy. The greater the difference between the environmental temperature and the lifted parcel (updraft), the faster the vertical motion.  CAPE, however, can be large, but spread over a large vertical chunk of the atmosphere - called thin CAPE.  Thin CAPE has a smaller spread (aka lifted index) and less updraft strength.  Fat CAPE, may also be large, but attributed to a smaller chunk of the atmosphere.  It's spread is a lot larger (more negative lifted index). Vertical velocities are typically larger with fat CAPE.  <br />
<br />
Nevertheless, vertical velocities are typically estimated by taking the CAPE multiplying it by 2 and taking the square root.  So a CAPE value of 3,000 (practically speaking this is large) would result in a vertical velocity of 77 m/s or 15,000 fpm.  I believe that most thunderstorms will be in the 4,000 to 6,000 fpm range.  You may find that thunderstorms that develop within strong areas of instability (large, fat CAPE) may exceed 10,000 fpm.  Think about it this way, if a thunderstorm can produce hail as large as a grapefruit, you'd need a pretty significant updraft to keep that kind of weight cycling up and down in the cell before it falls out of the thunderstorm into the hail shaft.    <br />
<br />
But, keep in mind that the maximum vertical velocity may be around 400 mb (25,000 ft) in many storms over the U.S. Tropical convection like we saw in the vicinity of the Air France accident is a different beast, however - most of its updraft strength is above 32,000 ft with fairly weak updrafts in the mid level of the atmosphere...that's why we don't see much lightning in tropical convection. <br />
 <br />
At the base of the convection you might only see velocities as large as 6 m/s (1200 fpm) and this will typically occur in the right-front quadrant of the thunderstorm cell (based on its forward motion).  Although, short-duration (15 seconds) updrafts at the base of the cloud in converging thunderstorm cells have been seen as high as 23 m/s (4,500 fpm).]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 09 Mar 2012 09:02:43 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,490,490#msg-490</guid>
            <title>Response to a weather article in the POPA magazine (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,490,490#msg-490</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ The Pilatus Owners and Pilots Association (POPA) now publishes a very slick-looking glossy quarterly magazine.  I opened my copy of the Winter 2012 issue and saw an article written by Bill Cox entitled, <span style="color: #0000FF">Spring Thunderstorms</span>.  I always attempt to read any weather-related article because there's often a lot of misinformation presented that makes for a good learning opportunity for everyone else.  This article didn't disappoint me in that area.<br />
<br />
In the beginning of the article, Mr. Cox states that "<span style="color: #0000FF">Air France 447, an Airbus A330, may have been brought down in 2009 by <u class="bbcode">violent weather</u> above the South Atlantic off the coast of Brazil.</span>"  First, the accident actually occurred north of the equator.  So I'm not sure that I would have called this the South Atlantic.  Second, as I stated in <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,94,94#msg-94">this</a> analysis that I made shortly after the accident, the cause was most likely due to ice crystals in the clouds, not structural icing or turbulence.  It was <strong class="bbcode">not</strong> due to the aircraft flying directly into extreme convective turbulence causing it to depart from controlled flight.  So yes, weather around a tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) played a role, but the loss of control was not engendered by turbulence.<br />
<br />
The guts of the article focuses around telling a couple of stories about delivery flights that Mr. Cox made over many years.  But, toward the end of the article he mentions, "<span style="color: #0000FF">Thunderstorm encounters above 20,000 feet don't normally present much of an icing hazard, as it's usually too cold for ice to form...</span>"  It is true that as air gets colder, the icing occurrences tend to drop off.   Nevertheless, maybe that's been his "lucky" experience, but supercooled liquid water above 20,000 feet is actually quite common, especially when it comes to deep, moist convection.  Just take a look at pilot reports on a regular basis to see just how common it is.<br />
<br />
In fact, during the spring and summer when convection is likely, the freezing level is often as high as 17,000 feet throughout much of the southern half of the U.S.  That means the temperatures at 20,000 feet to 30,000 feet are very much prime for supercooled liquid water (-2°C to -20°C).  In fact, ice crystal production doesn't typically begin until the temperatures drop below about -12°C.  Moreover, within convection supercooled liquid water can be carried to very high levels and cold temperatures in thunderstorm updrafts (one of the requirements to produce lightning).  In fact, Environment Canada has recorded water in a liquid state down to -37.5°C and that was also in a thunderstorm.  Theoretically supercooled liquid water can exist down to -40°C.  <br />
<br />
The Current Icing Product (CIP) found on the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) website <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://aviationweather.gov/adds/icing/icingnav">here</a> uses a cutoff temperature threshold of -25°C for icing <u class="bbcode">unless</u> it is in the vicinity of deep, moist convection.  For that, they drop the temperature threshold down to -30°C in regions that exhibit lighting.  That's because it is likely that supercooled liquid water exists within convection down to really cold temperatures.             <br />
<br />
The last paragraph was the best one of all.  Mr. Cox says, "<span style="color: #0000FF">In his book, Operational Overflight, U2 pilot Francis Gary Powers recalled a flight above the Middle East when he was looking 'way up' at the top of a thunderstorm.  And Powers was at 80,000 feet.</span>"  <br />
<br />
This would make it appear as if thunderstorm tops can actually reach up to altitudes way above 80,000 feet, which they cannot.  It is rare to see tops of thunderstorms (even those most severe) to reach 60,000 feet.  Thunderstorms over 65,000 feet are extremely rare.  Finding a thunderstorm to exceed 70,000 feet is probably as rare as getting struck by lightning...more than once.  I don't doubt that Mr. Powers came across a cumulonimbus cloud with overshooting tops that exceeded 65,000 feet, but I am not believing that he ran across one that topped out at 90,000+ feet.  <br />
<br />
I read Operational Overflight some time ago and have an electronic copy as well.  I looked up this reference.  Here's what Mr. Powers says in the book, "I encountered several varieties of trouble en route.  One was a violent thunderstorm, the worst I had ever seen, which obscured our objective.  For a while I was unaware whether I could fly above it, it extended so high."  Nothing was mentioned that he was at 80,000 feet and that he was looking "way up" at the thunderstorm.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2012 17:40:54 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?1,487,487#msg-487</guid>
            <title>Questions with a short fuse (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?1,487,487#msg-487</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ If you have a question related to a particular recent flight or weather situation that happened in the the last day, post it and then send <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/contact-us.php">me</a> an immediate e-mail.  I don't monitor The Weather Report discussion forums for new posts but once or twice a week.  Archives quickly drop off the edge and they are usually important to grab quickly (normally within 12 to 24 hours).  I'll do my best to follow up with your question or comment as soon as possible.  In the meantime, if you have any charts/graphs/diagrams/text you captured, add those to your post as well.  Look <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?1,15,15#msg-15">here</a> for a short tutorial on how to post images in this forum.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>General announcements</category>
            <pubDate>Sat, 25 Feb 2012 17:50:02 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,485,485#msg-485</guid>
            <title>New workshop series (1 reply)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,485,485#msg-485</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ In addition to my Skew-T log (p) Diagram tips and Scott's Pet Peeves workshop series, I plan to start a new series of basic workshops that will focus on improving your preflight weather briefings.  These will typically be short workshops designed to fit within the realm of the "Top ten ways to improve your preflight weather briefings."  If you have a tip that you think others could benefit from using, please reply to this post and share it here.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Sat, 25 Feb 2012 01:10:02 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,482,482#msg-482</guid>
            <title>(tu) Support for iPad users coming soon! (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,482,482#msg-482</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ After searching for and testing a number of solutions, I have finally found a way to convert all of the basic workshops to an mp4 format without losing much in the way of video and audio fidelity.   An mp4 "movie" is playable on the iPad (and eventually will be optimized for the iPhone).   This won't happen overnight given that each and every workshop must be converted and uploaded to the server.  Unfortunately, this is a labor intensive process that takes considerable time.  iPad users that are members of AvWxWorkshops.com will be able to click on a link that says, "Start Workshop for iPad Users" or similar which will launch the workshop on the iPad (or iPhone).  <br />
<br />
The mp4 file will not include the quizzes at the end of the workshop.  Moreover any URLs (web addresses) that are presented on screen during the workshop will not be active links to click and visit.  All of these links are contained in the Internet Wx Brief Roadmap.  Nevertheless, if you are viewing this post via an iPad (or iPhone), click <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/iPad/Surface-Analysis-Tips.mp4">here</a> to see a sample workshop.  Let me know what you think about the audio and video quality on either device.   <br />
<br />
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to send me an e-mail.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Tue, 21 Feb 2012 09:37:58 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,475,475#msg-475</guid>
            <title>Severe icing report from a Boeing 767 (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,475,475#msg-475</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ Snow falling from the base of a cloud deck can mean lots of things. *Usually* it means that structural icing in the bases of the clouds is less of a threat. But that's not true in all cloud types. Usually this rule works well in stratocumulus where the liquid water content is usually the highest at the tops...but, in a nimbostratus deck, the highest liquid water content could be somewhere in the middle of the snow-producing clouds.<br />
<br />
Here's an example of what a snow-producing post-cold frontal stratocumulus deck can offer. Here's the report for KSDF near Louisville, KY. <br />
<br />
KSDF 110756Z 31013G20KT 8SM -SN OVC013 M02/M05 A3003 RMK AO2 PK WND 31026/0739 UPB28E38SNE14B46 SLP173 P0000 T10171050<br />
<br />
Shortly after this METAR, the following pilot report was made...take note of the aircraft type.<br />
<br />
SDF UUA /OV SDF225007/TM 0803/FL040/TP <strong class="bbcode">B763</strong>/TA UNKN/IC SEV RIME<br />
<br />
This was in a cloud deck that was less than 3,000 ft thick based on my estimates. And, it was snowing. Normally pilots are taught that snow-producing clouds are not much of a threat. Well, think again.<br />
<br />
And yes, there was a SIGMET for severe ice below 6,000 ft issued in this area...but that was after the first severe icing report from another Boeing 767.<br />
<br />
000<br />
WSUS03 KKCI 110749<br />
WS3R<br />
CHIR WS 110749<br />
SIGMET ROMEO 1 VALID UNTIL 111149<br />
IN KY<br />
FROM 30SSE TTH TO CVG TO LOZ TO BWG TO 30SSE TTH<br />
<strong class="bbcode">OCNL SEV RIME ICGIC BLW 060</strong>. RPTD BY ACFT. CONDS CONTG BYD 1149Z.<br />
<br />
See <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTgz">this</a> workshop for a more detailed explanation of this serious icing event.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Mon, 13 Feb 2012 20:51:55 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?2,465,465#msg-465</guid>
            <title>Winds In Weak Pressure Gradient Areas (5 replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?2,465,465#msg-465</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ On Thursday, January 26, 2012 I started to look at the weather for a flight from Charlottesville (KCHO) to Danville (KDAN), Virginia for Saturday January 28th.  Noting the nearby high pressure system and far apart isobars, I figured it would likely be a clear and calm day.  During pre-flight for a 1800UTC departure I noticed the area did indeed appear to be dominated by high pressure and the isobars were far apart as forecast.  <br />
<br />
Below is the surface analysis valid at 1200UTC <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=119,filename=hpc_sfc_analysis_VT1200UTC_Jan282012.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=119,filename=hpc_sfc_analysis_VT1200UTC_Jan282012.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
Because of this, I was surprised to see the following METAR/TAF for Charlottesville, VA with forecast gusts to 17 knots. The winds turned out to actually be a little stronger than this and persisted for a longer period of time (these characteristics were captured by an updated TAF I viewed at KDAN).<br />
<br />
KCHO 281553Z 18007KT 10SM CLR 08/M01 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP179 T00831011<br />
<br />
KCHO 281120Z 2812/2912 00000KT P6SM SCT250 <br />
     FM281400 21006KT P6SM BKN150 <br />
     FM281800 21010G17KT P6SM SCT040 BKN120 <br />
     FM282300 29010KT P6SM BKN050 <br />
     FM290300 00000KT P6SM SCT250<br />
<br />
I was also surprised to see the following G-AIRMETs for high and low turbulence <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=120,filename=GAIRMET_us_TANGO_vt1800utc.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=120,filename=GAIRMET_us_TANGO_vt1800utc.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
Enroute, the winds were strong off of the Appalachian mountains and the Lynchburg, VA ATIS reported gusts of 20+ knots.  At landing, winds at Danville were out of 250 at 16 knots (for runway 20).  The winds remained strong for the return to Charlottesville and we landed with winds out of 250 at 16 and gusting (runway 21).<br />
<br />
The surface analysis I found after landing back at Charlottesville is below (valid at 2100UTC).<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=121,filename=hpc_sfc_analysis_2100_Jan282012.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=121,filename=hpc_sfc_analysis_2100_Jan282012.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
This 2100UTC surface analysis again depicts a weak pressure gradient in Virginia.  There was also still a G-AIRMET for turbulence at this time.  The other noteworthy weather feature is the cold front which was previously well west of Virginia and has since crossed my flight path.<br />
<br />
My questions are<br />
<br />
(1)	Why were the winds relatively strong with such a weak pressure gradient?<br />
(2)	Do high winds cause cold fronts to move quickly or, perhaps, the other way around (fast moving cold fronts induce high winds)?<br />
<br />
And, finally, a picture of the sunset over the Appalachian Mountains on the trip back to Charlottesville.<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=122,filename=sunset.JPG" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?2,file=122,filename=sunset.JPG" /></center><br />
 <br />
Thanks Scott!]]></description>
            <dc:creator>NDR</dc:creator>
            <category>General Discussion</category>
            <pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 08:14:49 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,458,458#msg-458</guid>
            <title>NEXRAD upgrade to dual-pol (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,458,458#msg-458</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ Well, if you haven't been paying close attention, the NWS will be upgrading the WSR-88D radars to dual polarization over the next couple of years.  As a result, each radar will essentially be inop for roughly two weeks (12 days).  I've made the latest deployment schedule available <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/DPDeployment-Schedule.pdf">here</a>.  No, you won't likely see a NOTAM either and don't count on FSS to know about it.    Back in 2008 I wrote <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/magazines/Dennstaedt_Polarimetric_Radar.pdf">this</a> IFR magazine article that explains this upgrade. For now, it won't have much of an effect on the NEXRAD images we can get online.       <br />
<br />
For XM-delivered satellite weather, the best approach is to be sure you always look at the radar coverage map that is also available from the XM broadcast.  For example, here is an XM weather coverage map when the Portland radar was undergoing its upgrade back in September.  You can see that Portland, Oregon does not have coverage.<br />
<br />
<img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=118,filename=Missing-XM-Data-Portland.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=118,filename=Missing-XM-Data-Portland.gif" />]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Mon, 23 Jan 2012 20:45:24 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,456,456#msg-456</guid>
            <title>Noise on NEXRAD (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,456,456#msg-456</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ Sometimes you may see some interesting images when viewing the WSR-88D NEXRAD Doppler radars.  Here's one that I captured the other day out of North Platte, Nebraska.<br />
<br />
<img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=117,filename=LNX-Radar-Rings.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/file.php?8,file=117,filename=LNX-Radar-Rings.gif" /><br />
<br />
There are dozens of reasons why we get strange returns and patterns on NEXRAD.  In this case, this anomaly lasted just a few minutes it and was caused by a hiccup in the radar. The weather surveillance radar (located in Thedford, NE) uses a signal that bounces back to the radar from, say a storm cloud or precipitation. In order for the radar to know there is precipitation to display the signal needs to be stronger than the internal noise that this radar equipment naturally has.<br />
<br />
At this particular time, the internal noise (something the radar operators monitor continually), was about 30,000K. Normal noise is about 300K. The radar interpreted all this internal noise as a return signal that was pretty strong and because the noise was constant, the radar displayed the return an equidistant from the antenna. Voile! Instant confusion for all. The 'noise' soon returned to it's normal level on the next scan.<br />
<br />
In some cases, these unusual NEXRAD returns can make it through the XM weather filters and appear in the cockpit as I discuss in <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/workshop-detail.php?contentSet=MTE5">this</a> workshop.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:22:11 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,455,455#msg-455</guid>
            <title>EMB-120 icing encounters (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,455,455#msg-455</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ Here are a few reports of icing encounters by the air crews of EMB-120 aircraft.  Emphasis on the reports below are mine...  <br />
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>In April of 1995, both crewmernbers in an EMB-120 near Tallahassee, Florida, noticed <strong class="bbcode">trace</strong> icing on the outboard leading edge of the wing.  The crew also observed an airspeed reduction from 180 KIAS to 140 KIAS, a pitch increase to 5° nose-up, and no apparent increase of trace icing on the leading edge of the wing.  The crew activated the de-ice boots, after which the airspeed increased and pitch decreased.  Information about the use of the autopilot was unavailable (This information was obtained from Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) report 302910).<br/></div></blockquote>
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>On October 16, 1994, near Elko, Nevada, an EMB-120 stabilized at 160 KIAS at 13,000 feet.  Both pilots checked for ice on the wings and spinner, <strong class="bbcode">but they did not see a significant amount</strong>.  With the aircraft on autopilot, the flightcrew initiated a heading change to the right, and the aircraft began a right wing down (RWU) roll attitude.   During the turn, at about 20° RWD, the stick shaker and pusher activated almost simultaneously. The aircraft rolled nearly 90° to the right and pitched over.  The pilot took manual control of the airplane and recovered.  Post-flight inspection of the aircraft revealed clear ice on the wing leading edge and propeller spinners.  The de-ice boots were not activated during the flight because <strong class="bbcode">the crew did not believe the ice was of sufficient thickness to cause concern</strong>.  Data from the FDR were extracted by the air carrier and forwarded to the FAA and Embraer; analysis showed a minimum airspeed of 138 KIAS before the stick shaker activated.  The stick shaker activated about 10 knots above the calculated accelerated stick shaker speed.  The Safety Board was not notified of this incident until after the Comair Flight 3272 accident, however, regulations do not require this type of incident to be reported to the Safety Board (This incident was described in ASRS report 286127).<br/></div></blockquote>
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>On April 29, 1993, at Pine Bluff, Arkansas, an EMB-120 was climbing on autopilot when it stalled and entered a steep descent.  Three of the four propeller blades subsequently separated from the left engine. The airplane’s airspeed had decreased to 138 knots before the stick shaker activated and the autopilot disconnected.  The aircraft experienced an extreme roll upset during the stall.  Occasional moderate icing in clouds and precipitation were forecast for the area and for the altitude traversed by the airplane.  The Safety Board concluded that an accretion of ice on the wing was the only reasonable explanation for activation of the stick shaker and loss of roll control at the higher than expected airspeeds. There was no evidence that any ice protection systems were activated before, during or after the upset and the aircrew did not recall seeing evidence of icing before the loss of control.  A passenger, however, recalled seeing a “whitish” substance that appeared to be snow about 8 to 10 inches above the windshield wipers.<br/></div></blockquote>
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>On November 22, 1991, in Clermont-Ferrand, France, an EMB-120 was descending with autopilot engaged.  The captain considered the descent rate too high and disconnected the autopilot manually leveling off the aircraft at 4,500 feet.  As the airspeed decreased through 150 KIAS, tlie stick shaker activated.  The airplane then rolled 60° to the right three times and lost 1,000 feet of altitude.  During recovery, the flightcrew increased engine power and cycled the de-ice boots. The French Bureau Enquettes Accidents (BEA) obtained the FDR data and forwarded them to Embraer Avions de Transport Regional (ATR) informed the Safety Board staff of this incident duiing the Safety Board’s investigation of the October 31, 1994, ATR-72 icing accident at Roselawn, Indiana.<br/></div></blockquote>
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>In September 1991, Fort Smith, Arkansas, an unspecified aircraft type (assumed to be an EMB-120 based on systems descriptions) was in level flight at 19,000 feet with the autopilot engaged. Both pilots felt vibration through the floorboards. The pilots inspected the wings, propeller spinners, and engine inlets, <strong class="bbcode">which did not appear to have excessive amounts of ice</strong>.  Thirty seconds after the first vibration, the stick shaker activated, the captain took manual control of the aircraft and called for all anti-ice equipment on. The aircraft did not immediately respond to rudder/elevator inputs and it entered a right bank, nose-down descent of 1,000 feet per minute.  The pilots regained control at 16,000 feet (This incident was described in ASRS report 189745).<br/></div></blockquote>
<br /><blockquote class="bbcode">Quote:<div>On June 28, 1989, at Klamath Falls, Oregon, an EMB-120 was flying on autopilot at 16,000 feet in <strong class="bbcode">light</strong> icing and turbulence. The flight descended to 15,000 feet and the flightcrew observed <strong class="bbcode">light</strong> mixed rime and clear ice. The airspeed decreased rapidly, from 180 to 160 KIAS, and was followed by activation of the stick shaker.  The pilot took control of the aircraft and applied maximum power as the aircraft rolled 30° to the left one time then 40° to the right two times. There was no indication that any ice protection equipment was used (This incident was described in ASRS report 115422).<br/></div></blockquote>
<br />
And there are plenty more.  These are all EMB-120 events involving <strong class="bbcode">trained</strong> aircrews in aircraft with <strong class="bbcode">certified IPSs</strong>.  Notice that many of these are encounters and not a result of heavy ice and/or SLD...they were apparently caused by light or trace ice.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:07:37 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,454,454#msg-454</guid>
            <title>Make the time... (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,454,454#msg-454</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ One of the most frustrating things I hear from some pilots is that they are simply unwilling to spend any significant amount of time analyzing the weather prior to a flight.  These pilots claim that if your preflight briefing takes such a long time, that should be a sign that the weather is probably too challenging.  This kind of conclusion is usually due to impatience and unwillingness to learn how to read the various charts and diagrams that tell you the weather story.  They don't want to work for the answer.          <br />
<br />
I think it all boils down to the following quote...<br />
<br />
“If you haven’t anticipated it, you probably won’t recognize it when it happens.”  <br />
   - Chuck Doswell  <br />
<br />
Take the time to be complete in your analysis so you are not surprised.  Surprises kill pilots.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Wed, 11 Jan 2012 20:00:44 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,452,452#msg-452</guid>
            <title>ADDS tip... (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,452,452#msg-452</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ If you want to display the coded text for ALL the latest TAFs for the U.S. (airports that start with K), just use the following:<br />
<br />
<strong class="bbcode">h</strong><strong class="bbcode">ttp://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/index.php?station_ids=K</strong><br />
<br />
This will create one single page that is searchable.  <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/index.php?station_ids=K">Try it!</a><br />
<br />
The same can be done for METARs.  <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars?station_ids=K&std_trans=standard&chk_metars=on&hoursStr=most+recent+only&submitmet=Submit">Try that too!</a>]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 14:44:18 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,451,451#msg-451</guid>
            <title>Here's an interesting display of ASOS data... (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,451,451#msg-451</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ This is a nicely organized page that depicts the <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.iadasos.org/index2.html">latest</a> conditions from the ASOS at Dulles, Virginia (KIAD).  You can also go <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.iadasos.org/iad.php">here</a> to see the display on a smart phone.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 14:33:36 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,450,450#msg-450</guid>
            <title>The 2011 Hurricane Season (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,450,450#msg-450</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ Here's a <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX7Q-0QuID4">cool animation</a> of the <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2011atlan.shtml">2011</a> hurricane season.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2012 10:45:43 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,443,443#msg-443</guid>
            <title>Weather analysis for an accident of a TBM-700 near Morristown, NJ (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,443,443#msg-443</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ <span style="color: #FF0000">Disclaimer:</span>  Please note that the analysis to follow may contain errors and omissions.  It has been prepared for educational purposes only and does not reflect the view of the NWS, NTSB, FAA or any of their personnel, agents or organizations.  If you would like to learn more about aviation weather, please visit [<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com">avwxworkshops.com</a>]     <br />
 <br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
At about 15Z (10 am EST) on December 20, 2011, a TBM-700 (N731CA) departed controlled flight after leaving Teterboro in northern NJ.  The aircraft crashed close to I-287 near the Morristown, NJ airport (KMMU) in north-central NJ.  The NTSB reported in a news conference that the wreckage covered nearly one-half of a mile with some witnesses suggesting the aircraft may have broken up in flight while in a rapid descent.    <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/FA-Track.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/FA-Track.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" />Here is the preliminary NTSB report associated with this accident:<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #0000CC">NTSB Identification: ERA12FA115<br />
14 CFR Part 91: General Aviation<br />
Accident occurred Tuesday, December 20, 2011 in Morristown, NJ<br />
Aircraft: SOCATA TBM 700, registration: N731CA<br />
Injuries: 5 Fatal.<br />
 <br />
This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. On December 20, 2011, about 1005 eastern standard time, a Socata TBM 700, N731CA, collided with terrain following an in-flight loss of aircraft control near Morristown, New Jersey. The airplane was registered to Cool Stream LLC and was operated by the pilot. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed and an instrument flight rules flight plan was filed for the flight from Teterboro, New Jersey [TEB] to Atlanta, Georgia [PDK]. The personal flight was conducted under the provisions of 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91. The airplane sustained substantial damage. The certificated private pilot and four passengers were fatally injured. The flight originated from TEB at 0950.<br />
<br />
A preliminary review of recorded radar and voice communications revealed that the pilot was in communication with the Federal Aviation Administration, New York Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). While flying at 17,000 feet mean sea level (MSL) the pilot reported that he was in icing conditions. The pilot requested a climb, and the flight was subsequently cleared to flight level (FL) 200. The aircraft reached a maximum altitude of 17,900 feet and then began to descend. Radar and radio contact with N731CA was lost about 1005. <br />
<br />
The airplane impacted a wooded median on Interstate Highway 287, about 1 mile south of Morristown. Several sections of the airplane, including the propeller assembly, came to rest in a wooded area on the east side of the northbound lanes. A post-crash fire was evident in the highway median, where the fuselage came to rest. The outboard section of the right wing and several sections of the empennage were found about 0.25 miles southwest of the fuselage, in a residential area.<br />
<br />
The pilot held a private pilot certificate with ratings for airplane single-engine land and instrument airplane. He reported a total flight experience of 1,400 hours on his latest second-class medical certificate application, dated July 14, 2011.<br />
<br />
The airplane was manufactured in 2005 and equipped with a Pratt and Whitney Canada PT6A-64 turbo-prop engine. The most recent annual inspection was performed on July 27, 2011. At that time, the airplane had accumulated approximately 702.0 total flight hours. The last logbook entry was recorded on November 18, 2011, at an aircraft total time of 724.6 hours.<br />
<br />
The wreckage was recovered to a storage facility, where a detailed examination will be performed NTSB.</span><br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" />The pilot was climbing to a cruise altitude of 26,000 feet headed southwest to Atlanta according to <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N731CA">FlightAware</a>.  At this point it is unknown if weather was a causal factor in this terrible accident that claimed five people and a dog.  There is speculation in the press and within the pilot community that structural icing caused the plane to depart controlled flight and crash.  <br />
<br />
Structural icing is produced when an aircraft flies through visible moisture that is in liquid form (cloud or rain drops) when the static air temperature is below 0°C (technically it is the temperature of the skin of the aircraft that matters).  This is referred to as supercooled liquid water.  Supercooled liquid water is quite common when the outside air temperature is between 0°C to -20°C.  As an aircraft enters into this environment, the supercooled liquid water will freeze onto the airframe.  If not removed, the ice accretions can disrupt the aerodynamic flow over the lifting surfaces causing the wing to stall at higher indicated airspeeds.  It can also cause the static port and/or pitot tube to freeze giving the pilot erratic or erroneous indications of airspeed and altitude.      <br />
<br />
Some aircraft are equipped with certified ice protection systems that can shed most of the ice accretions. The TBM-700 is certified into known icing conditions.  However, like many aircraft it is not certified into an environment with supercooled large drops (SLD).  A description of SLD can be found in <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/12-18-09.html">this</a> FREE e-Tip.  <br />
<br />
However, moderate structural ice was being reported by many pilots throughout the NY area during most of the morning.  This included at least two <u class="bbcode">urgent</u> pilot reports (PIREPs) of moderate to severe ice as shown below.  Severe icing is typically reported when the ice accretion is overwhelming the ice protection system (IPS).<br />
<br />
MMU <span style="color: #FF0000">UUA</span> /OV MMU/<strong class="bbcode">TM 1308</strong>/FL140/TP MD83/TA 04/<strong class="bbcode">IC MOD-SEV RIME 140-165</strong><br />
SMQ <span style="color: #FF0000">UUA</span> /OV BWZ250030/TM 1542/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP MULTIPLE/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD-SEV</strong> RIME/RM ABE FL140-175  <br />
<br />
The first report was two hours prior to the accident over MMU at 1308Z.  This was from an MD80 at 14,000 feet which reported moderate to severe icing between 14,000 ft and 16,500 feet.  The report has a temperature aloft (TA) of +4°C at 14,000 feet.  This temperature is inconsistent with other pilot reports in the area, and is inconsistent with the sounding analysis posted below which indicated a temperature at 14,000 feet of approximately -11°C.  <br />
<br />
NOTE:  I was informed by an MD80 pilot that this may have been the total air temperature (TAT) reported and not the temperature aloft (TA) or static air temperature (SAT) given the TAT is much more prominent on the MD80 instrument panel.  If true, this would be nearly a 15°C rise which is still inconsistent with NASA calculations. According to NASA, kinetic heating causes the TAT to be warmer than the SAT. For example, if the SAT is -2°C, an aircraft traveling at 250 knots would observe a TAT of approximately +5°C. <br />
<br />
The second report was further west of MMU and was likely called in by the NY center (ZNY) controller given that the aircraft type (TP) indicates "multiple" implying multiple aircraft reporting moderate to severe ice.  This was about 30 minutes after the accident, but certainly consistent with the other pilot reports in the area in and around MMU.<br />
<br />
The entire NYC area was covered in a couple dozen moderate reports of icing as shown in the list below.  These reports are from 12Z through 16Z within 200 miles of the accident site near Morristown, NJ.  Notice the abundance of moderate icing reports from large turbojet aircraft.  Most of these are between 12,000 feet and 19,000 feet with a fair number of moderate reports at 17,000 feet.  This weather event wasn't suffering from the lack of PIREPs.  If this doesn't get your attention, I don't know what will.  <br />
<br />
ELM UA /OV ULW/TM 1157/<strong class="bbcode">FL160</strong>/TP DH8D/TA M11/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX 160<br />
LNS UA /OV LRP045015/TM 1159/<strong class="bbcode">FL160</strong>/TP SF34/TA M09/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
ABE UA /OV FJC150010/TM 1200/<strong class="bbcode">FL120</strong>/TP CRJ7/SK OVC/WX IMC/TB LGT-MOD/IC LGT RIME<br />
PTW UA /OV PTW32010/TM 1205/<strong class="bbcode">FL170</strong>/TP E170/SK OVC/WX IMC/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX/RM ICING 140-170<br />
HPN UA /OV HPN/TM 1210/<strong class="bbcode">FL170</strong>/TP A320/TA M09/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
JFK UA /OV JFK156020/TM 1214/FL130/TP A320/IC LGT RIME/RM FL130BFL180<br />
HTO UA /OV HTO240050/TM 1216/FL140/TP MU2/TA M17/IC MOD RIME/RM FL140-180<br />
MJX UA /OV CYN090010/TM 1218/FL140/TP E190/IC LGT RIME/RM JFK FL140-170<br />
MJX UA /OV CYN090020/TM 1219/FL160/TP E190/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME/RM JFK FL120-160<br />
TTN UA /OV RBV180020/TM 1220/FL140/TP E190/TA M13/IC LGT RIME/RM JFK<br />
SMQ UA /OV SBJ030/TM 1220/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP A320/TA M14/IC <strong class="bbcode">LGT-MOD</strong> CLR 140, MOD RIME 150-175/RM EWR<br />
JFK UA /OV JFK140040/TM 1222/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP E170/TA M10/IC MOD RIME<br />
BUF UA /OV DNY220010/TM 1226/<strong class="bbcode">FL190</strong>/TP B737/TA M18/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
POU UA /OV PWL270012/TM 1242/FL180/TP E170/TA M16/IC LGT RIME<br />
IPT UA /OV LRP065010/TM 1246/<strong class="bbcode">FL160</strong>/TP A320/TA 07/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX 140-160<br />
FWN UA /OV SAX090020/TM 1248/<strong class="bbcode">FL150</strong>/TP E170/TA M01/IC <strong class="bbcode">LGT-MOD</strong> MX<br />
JFK UA /OV JFK156020/TM 1255/FL130/TP A320/TB LGT/IC LGT RIME/RM 130BFL180<br />
BDR UA /OV BDR/TM 1255/<strong class="bbcode">FL180</strong>/TP B737/TA M18/IC <strong class="bbcode">LGT-MOD</strong> RIME<br />
HPN UA /OV LGA360015/TM 1301/FL140/TP A320/TA M14/IC LGT RIME 140-170<br />
PHL UA /OV OOD/TM 1302/FL130/TP 717/TA M10/IC LGT RIME 130-160<br />
MMU UUA /OV MMU/TM 1308/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP MD83/TA 04/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD-SEV</strong> RIME 140-165<br />
HTO UA /OV HTO/TM 1309/<strong class="bbcode">FL185</strong>/TP B737/TA M18/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX 185-135/RM /TA M18 TO M10<br />
SMQ UA /OV MMU270010/TM 1310/<strong class="bbcode">FL135</strong>/TP E190/SK OVCUNKN-TOP155/TA M12/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME 135-155<br />
SNC UA /OV MAD/TM 1313/FL170/TP LJ31/TA M10/IC LGT RIME<br />
HPN UA /OV HPN315015/TM 1315/FLUNKN/TP A319/TA 04/TB LGT CHOP 150-160/IC LGT RIME 150-160<br />
AVP UA /OV AVP090005/TM 1334/FL050/TP C208/TA M06/IC LGT MX<br />
LGA UA /OV JFK360010/TM 1336/FL130/TP B752/TA M08/IC LGT RIME 130-150<br />
BDR UA /OV BDR180010/TM 1337/FL170/TP B737/TA M10/IC LGT RIME 170-150<br />
IJD UA /OV ORW270010/TM 1339/<strong class="bbcode">FL190</strong>/TP E190/TA M18/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
FWN UA /OV SAX/TM 1353/<strong class="bbcode">FL170</strong>/TP CRJ9/TA M14/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
SMQ UA /OV BWZ/TM 1356/<strong class="bbcode">FL130</strong>/TP S340/SK OVC/WX IMC/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX<br />
SEG UA /OV MIP/TM 1357/FL050/TP C208/TA M05/IC LGT RIME<br />
JFK UA /OV JFK180040/TM 1402/<strong class="bbcode">FL180</strong>/TP C56/TA M10/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
FWN UA /OV 4N1315005/TM 1410/FL035/TP C172/SK SCT030/WX FV07SM/TA M01/RM SMTH<br />
RDG UA /OV ETX070010/TM 1413/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP E190/TA M14/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME 140-160/RM ABE<br />
ITH UA /OV ELM090020/TM 1422/FL037/TP BE99/SK OVC030-TOP040/TA M02/IC TRACE-LGT RIME<br />
JFK UA /OV DPK205027/TM 1422/<strong class="bbcode">FL170</strong>/TP E190/TA M14/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> CLR<br />
ISP UA /OV DPK090010/TM 1427/<strong class="bbcode">FL133</strong>/TP E190/SK OVC133-TOPUNKN/TA M14/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX 133-180<br />
12N UA /OV BWZ090005/TM 1430/<strong class="bbcode">FL135</strong>/TP CRJ2/TA M12/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME 135-170<br />
PNE UA /OV RBV240010/TM 1440/FL150/TP A319/TA M09/IC LGT RIME<br />
RDG UA /OV ETX/TM 1458/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP DH8D/TA M8/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX/RM MOD MX ICING 140 ETX225010<br />
RDG UA /OV ETX/TM 1502/<strong class="bbcode">FL120</strong>/TP DH8D/TA M07/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX<br />
JFK UA /OV JFK225010 /TM 1510 /<strong class="bbcode">FL120</strong> /TP A320 /TA M07 /IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> RIME<br />
OXC UA /OV BDR360025/TM 1511/FLUNKN/TP B737/TA UNKN/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD</strong> MX 185-200<br />
APG UA /OV BWI045040/TM 1535/FL110/TP DH8D/TA M02/IC LGT RIME/RM DURD 110-060/TA01 AT 070/RIDE IMPROVES DURD NEG IC 090/ TWO CLD LYRS 090 AND 070<br />
SMQ UUA /OV BWZ250030/TM 1542/<strong class="bbcode">FL140</strong>/TP MULTIPLE/IC <strong class="bbcode">MOD-SEV</strong> RIME/RM ABE FL140-175<br />
RDG UA /OV ETX/TM 1542/FL120/TP SF34/TA M05/IC <strong class="bbcode">LGT-MOD</strong> MX<br />
ABE UA /OV FJC270015/TM 1547/<strong class="bbcode">FL130</strong>/TP MD82/TA M08/IC LGT RIME <br />
<br />
This graphic below plots all of the <u class="bbcode">icing</u> PIREPs between 12Z and 14Z.  The orange symbols are reports of moderate icing.  Many are focused right around NYC.  <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/Charted-Icing-PIREPs.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/Charted-Icing-PIREPs.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
At 0845Z, the Aviation Weather Center issued AIRMET Zulu (below) for moderate ice between the freezing level and <u class="bbcode">14,000 feet</u>.  The bounds of the AIRMET included the accident site and this AIRMET was valid through 15Z.  <br />
<br />
<span style="color: #3300FF">000<br />
WAUS41 KKCI 200845<br />
WA1Z<br />
BOSZ WA <strong class="bbcode">200845</strong><br />
AIRMET ZULU UPDT 1 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL <strong class="bbcode">VALID UNTIL 201500</strong><br />
.<br />
AIRMET ICE...NY NJ PA OH LE WV MD DC DE VA AND CSTL WTRS<br />
FROM DXO TO 30S HNK TO 60ESE HTO TO 140ESE ACK TO 200SE ACK TO<br />
160SE SIE TO 20W RIC TO 50W CSN TO HNN TO CVG TO FWA TO DXO<br />
<strong class="bbcode">MOD ICE BTN FRZLVL AND 140</strong>. FRZLVL 030-090. CONDS CONTG BYD 15Z<br />
THRU 21Z.<br />
.<br />
FRZLVL...RANGING FROM SFC-120 ACRS AREA<br />
   SFC ALG 20NE DXO-40WNW ERI-20SSE SLT-30WNW SAX-100SSW YSJ<br />
   040 ALG 20S FWA-30ENE EMI-100S ACK-160ESE ACK<br />
   080 ALG 20N CVG-180ESE SIE<br />
....</span><br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/0845Z-AIRMET.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/0845Z-AIRMET.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
Here is the freezing level forecast as derived from the AIRMET text above...<br />
<br />
<img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/0845Z-Freezing-Level.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/0845Z-Freezing-Level.gif" /> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
This AIRMET was subsequently <strong class="bbcode">amended</strong> by the Aviation Weather Center at <strong class="bbcode">1158Z</strong> to include moderate ice from the surface to <u class="bbcode">FL180</u>.  The amendment was likely prompted by the copious pilot reports that were streaming in.  In either case, a briefing through Lockheed Martin Flight Services or DUATS after 12Z would have included the amended AIRMET containing the new <i class="bbcode">higher</i> altitude icing limit.  However, the northern edge of the AIRMET was moved further south with this amendment.  That put the flight path just on the northern edge of the boundary of this amended AIRMET.   <br />
<br />
<span style="color: #3300FF">000<br />
WAUS41 KKCI 201158 AAA<br />
WA1Z<br />
BOSZ WA 201158 <strong class="bbcode">AMD</strong><br />
AIRMET ZULU UPDT 2 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL <strong class="bbcode">VALID UNTIL 201500</strong><br />
.<br />
AIRMET ICE...NY NJ PA OH LE WV MD DC DE VA AND CSTL WTRS...UPDT<br />
FROM DXO TO 40SSE HNK TO 70SSW ACK TO 130ESE ACK TO 200SE ACK TO<br />
180SE SIE TO 20W RIC TO 50W CSN TO HNN TO CVG TO FWA TO DXO<br />
<strong class="bbcode">MOD ICE BTN FRZLVL AND FL180</strong>. FRZLVL 030-090. CONDS CONTG BYD 15Z<br />
THRU 21Z.<br />
.<br />
FRZLVL...RANGING FROM SFC-120 ACRS AREA<br />
   SFC ALG 20NE DXO-40WNW ERI-20SSE SLT-30WNW SAX-100SSW YSJ<br />
   040 ALG 20S FWA-30ENE EMI-100S ACK-160ESE ACK<br />
   080 ALG 20N CVG-180ESE SIE<br />
....</span> <br />
<br />
Here is the location of the amended AIRMET issued at 1158Z.<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1158Z-AMD-AIRMET.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1158Z-AMD-AIRMET.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
At 1445Z the Aviation Weather Center issued the next round of AIRMETs that included this one (below) for moderate ice between the freezing level and FL200.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #3300FF">000<br />
WAUS41 KKCI 201445<br />
WA1Z<br />
BOSZ WA 201445<br />
AIRMET ZULU UPDT 3 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL 202100<br />
.<br />
AIRMET ICE...MA RI CT NY NJ PA OH LE WV MD DC DE VA AND CSTL WTRS<br />
FROM DXO TO 150ESE ACK TO 200SE ACK TO 160SE SIE TO 40WSW SBY TO<br />
HNN TO CVG TO FWA TO DXO<br />
<strong class="bbcode">MOD ICE BTN FRZLVL AND FL200</strong>. FRZLVL 020-080. CONDS CONTG BYD 21Z<br />
THRU 03Z.<br />
.<br />
OTLK VALID 2100-0300Z...ICE MA RI CT NY NJ PA OH LE WV MD DC DE<br />
VA NC SC GA AND CSTL WTRS<br />
BOUNDED BY ERI-150ESE ACK-200SE ACK-210SSE HTO-100ESE SIE-20WSW<br />
SIE-CSN-20SSW IRQ-LGC-GQO-HMV-HNN-CVG-FWA-40SW DXO-20SE DXO-ERI<br />
MOD ICE BTN FRZLVL AND FL200. FRZLVL 020-120. CONDS CONTG THRU<br />
03Z.<br />
.<br />
FRZLVL...RANGING FROM SFC-110 ACRS AREA<br />
   SFC ALG 70WSW YYZ-HNK-40W BOS-70ESE ENE-140SSE BGR<br />
   040 ALG 20S FWA-30N ROD-50SSE ETX-120SSE ACK-180SE ACK<br />
   080 ALG CVG-20NNE HNN-210SSE HTO<br />
....</span><br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1445Z-AIRMET.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1445Z-AIRMET.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Many serious icing scenarios are located near frontal systems.  This surface analysis loop from 00Z to 15Z shows a cold front pushing to the southeast as the occluded low pressure center in Quebec moves off to the northeast.    <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/00Z-15Z-SA-Loop.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/00Z-15Z-SA-Loop.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Consequently, by 15Z the cold front begins to slow its forward progress and begins to settle just north of the Mason-Dixon line.  A ridge of high pressure is present to the north over Quebec, Canada.  <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-Dec20-Surface-Analysis.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-Dec20-Surface-Analysis.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
There were plenty of clouds oriented west to east along the north side of the slowing cold front as can be seen in this visible satellite image at 1445Z.<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1445Z-Visible-Satellite.jpg" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1445Z-Visible-Satellite.jpg" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The moisture in this area was rather deep and oriented in a thin band along the northern side of the cold front.  Green solid contours are relative humidity based on the scale shown on the bottom right.  The charts in this three-image loop are 850 mb (5,000 ft), 700 mb (10,000 ft) and 500 mb (18,000 ft).  The nearest upper-level trough was located in the Midwest. <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/RUC-Upper-Air-Analysis.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/RUC-Upper-Air-Analysis.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" />  <br />
All of the NEXRAD sites in the area (DIX, OKX and BHM) were all in clear air mode.  The highest elevation angle in this mode is 4.5 degrees and the 0.5° base reflectivity image is only updated every 10 minutes.  Based on this NEXRAD image below from the Philadelphia radar (DIX) valid at 1504Z, most of the precipitation was located in southern NJ, Delaware and Maryland just south or along the cold front.  A little light precipitation was also falling in east-central NJ.    <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1504Z-DIX-Radar.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1504Z-DIX-Radar.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
However, the Binghamton radar (BHM) below does show some very light precipitation (less than 10 dB<i class="bbcode">Z</i>) in the airspace between TEB and MMU.  Precipitation can certainly increase the risk of icing, specifically large drop icing.   <br />
  <br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1510Z-BHM-Radar.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1510Z-BHM-Radar.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Given the precipitation in the area. it's very interesting that Teterboro (TEB ) and Caldwell (CDW) were both reporting clear skies at 1451Z and 1453Z, respectively.  Morristown (MMU) was reporting overcast at 20,000 ft at 1445Z.  Caldwell is a towered airport that sits between TEB and MMU.  Most likely the AWOS-3 at MMU was reporting clear below 12,000 ft and the human observer augmented the report to include the high overcast deck (that may have been an educated guess as to the height of this layer and it may have been lower).  It could also be that the AWOS report for TEB and ASOS report for CDW reported clear below 12,000 feet and the observation was not augmented to include the higher cloud deck.<br />
<br />
KTEB 201451Z 34008KT 10SM <strong class="bbcode">CLR</strong> 07/M02 A3017<br />
KCDW 201453Z VRB04KT 10SM <strong class="bbcode">CLR</strong> 06/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP225 T00561011 51025<br />
KMMU 201445Z 36008G13KT 10SM <strong class="bbcode">OVC200</strong> 06/M02 A3017 =<br />
<br />
Newwark, NJ (south of the route) and NYC (east of MMU/TEB ) were reporting a broken ceiling of 12,000 feet.<br />
<br />
KEWR 201451Z 35012G19KT 10SM FEW040 <strong class="bbcode">BKN120</strong> 07/M02 A3017<br />
KNYC 201551Z AUTO 36005KT 10SM <strong class="bbcode">BKN120</strong> 07/M01 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP216 T00671011<br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Cloud top temperatures throughout northern NJ were rather warm with temperatures around -15°C to -20°C according to this IR satellite image valid at 1445Z.  Cloud top temperatures this warm (in a relative sense) indicate that supercooled liquid water is likely to be present in the clouds below.  It is possible in some locations (especially in northern NJ) that tops might have been a bit higher and that may have been due to a slightly thin layer above.    <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1445Z-IR-Satellite.jpg" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/1445Z-IR-Satellite.jpg" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Given these cloud top temperatures and this RUC sounding for Newark, NJ (KEWR) valid at 15Z, a temperature between -15°C and -20°C places the tops between 18,000 ft and 19,000 ft.  A top around 18,000 feet is also consistent with this sounding analysis.  <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-EWR-Sounding.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-EWR-Sounding.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The satellite derived product shown below is one way to locate the icing threat in a cloud deck.  This image from 1515Z shows the cloud phase based on the legend at the right.  The baby blue color in PA and the northern half of NJ is showing clouds that are likely dominated by supercooled liquid water.    <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/Cloud-Phase-1515Z.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/Cloud-Phase-1515Z.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
The Current Icing Product (CIP) can also be of help to determine the top of the icing layer.  The loop below shows the icing severity analysis from 9,000 ft to FL230 valid at 15Z.  Icing severity is presented in shades of blue starting out with trace (light cyan) to heavy (dark blue).  Notice in this loop that all of the potential for icing disappears at about FL230.   But in the immediate area to the west of TEB, the icing tops out around FL190 or 19,000 feet.  At 17,000 feet where most of the moderate icing reports were located, CIP identified mostly moderate ice with a few pixels here and there of heavy ice.  But it is also interesting to see that a couple of pixels just over the crash site to contain no ice at 13,000 ft and 15,000 ft.  This may be due, in part, to the CLR reports at TEB and CDW.     <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/CIP-Loop-15Z.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/CIP-Loop-15Z.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Based on the CIP analysis shown below valid at 15Z, supercooled LARGE drop (SLD) icing was not an immediate threat either.  This image is a "smear" of the icing severity analysis plus SLD over the altitudes from 14,000 through 18,000 feet.   What this means is that the maximum intensity from 14,000 to 18,000 feet is shown.  The purple colors are areas of SLD.  While there was a risk of heavy icing to the west of the accident site in extreme eastern Pennsylvania, there wasn't SLD analyzed anywhere near the accident site in northern New Jersey.  Of course SLD cannot be ruled out just because of the CIP analysis.      <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-CIP-SLD-Smear-14K-18K.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-CIP-SLD-Smear-14K-18K.gif" /></center> <br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
We don't know what weather data the pilot used to make his decision to fly through this weather.  There were obviously many pilot reports available that clearly demonstrated the risk of moderate or greater structural icing in a layer from 14,000 ft through 19,000 ft.  The Current Icing Product shown earlier was valid at 15Z or after the pilot was airborne.  On the other hand, the chart below is the icing severity analysis valid at 14Z; this chart should have been available before the pilot departed TEB (it would have been posted on ADDS at 1415Z).  Like the 15Z CIP, this shows mostly moderate ice with some heavy icing (dark blue) just to the west of TEB.       <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/CIP-14Z-15K.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/CIP-14Z-15K.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /> <br />
CIP is an analysis of the icing environment that is always valid in the recent past.  However, the Forecast Icing Product or FIP will provide an icing forecast out to 12 hours.  FIP is issued every hour and produces a forecast for 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 hours.  The 3-hr forecast for FIP valid at 15Z would have been available to the pilot prior to departure.  Shown below is the icing probability forecast in percent for 13,000 ft through 17,000 ft.  The higher probabilities are shown in the "warmer" colors such as red, orange and yellow with lower probabilities shown using "cooler" colors such as blue and green.  Clearly this forecast shows a fairly high probability of icing on a climb through this layer.  Please note that this is a calibrated probability and takes into account uncertainty due to forecast length as discussed more thoroughly in <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/04-13-09.html">this</a> FREE e-Tip.     <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/FIP-Loop-13K-17K.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/FIP-Loop-13K-17K.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
Of course, this says nothing about the icing intensity.  Below is the FIP icing severity forecast valid at 15Z using the same altitudes as above.  This clearly shows the potential for moderate icing with some patches of heavy icing in northern NJ at 13,000 ft and 15,000 ft.  <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/FIP-Severity-Loop-13K-17K.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/FIP-Severity-Loop-13K-17K.gif" /></center><br />
 <br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
It is difficult to say what might have occurred.  Did the ice protection system fail in some way during the climb through a layer of moderate to potential heavy ice?   Was the aircraft loaded in such a way that it made recovery difficult?  Did the aircraft just find some really nasty icing during the climb?  If so, why was this a particularly nasty icing scenario?  Icing is one of those adverse weather elements that's hard to predict.  It can go from being very benign to very dangerous in just 15 to 20 minutes within the same airspace.  <br />
<br />
Often it is tempting to look at thermodynamic charts such as the Skew-T log (p) diagram for answers.  As mentioned above, these will give a good indication of the location of the tops when used in conjunction with the infrared satellite image.  The RUC sounding analysis below is valid at 15Z and right near the accident site.  And below that is the sounding from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model.  These two models are run at different times so there are differences to be expected.  Can't say for sure which is "more correct" than the other.  The <span style="color: #FF0000">red</span> line is the environmental temperature and the <span style="color: #339933">green</span> line is the dewpoint temperature.  Don't worry about the other lines.<br />
<br />
The RUC model (first diagram) seems to have handled the moisture better above 18,000 feet given the temperature-dewpoint spread here.  We verified that with the IR satellite image.  Whereas, the NAM carries moist conditions up to the tropopause which doesn't seem correct given the IR satellite tops presented above.  Does this invalidate the NAM?  Not necessarily.  The interesting feature on the NAM is the temperature inversion located about 600 mb which is roughly 14,000 feet.  This feature does not appear as pronounced on the RUC.  Nevertheless, both soundings do suggest stable conditions below the cloud base.   <br />
<br />
Why is this important?  A temperature inversion near/below the cloud base will often keep the clouds above quite clean.  Cleaner clouds often result in fewer, but larger drops.  Larger drops will tend to penetrate the boundary layer of the wing's surface well behind the protected part of the aircraft.  This is why supercooled large drop (SLD) icing is so insidious.  Of course, we don't know if SLD was present in these clouds.  But if stable conditions existed as suggested by these soundings, it may explain why this layer was getting so many PIREPs of moderate ice.    <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-RUC-Accident-Site.png" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-RUC-Accident-Site.png" /></center><br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-NAM-Accident-Site.png" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/15Z-NAM-Accident-Site.png" /></center><br />
  <br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
If you have any further questions or comments about this weather analysis, please feel free to <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/contact-us.php">contact me</a>.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Wed, 21 Dec 2011 11:27:35 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,442,442#msg-442</guid>
            <title>Rapid Update Cycle is going away...sort of... (11 replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,442,442#msg-442</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ For those that use the RUC model, it is being "semi-retired."  The RUC will be replaced with the Rapid Refresh model on 24 January 2012 per <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin11-53ructorap.htm"><strong class="bbcode">thi</strong>s</a> technical implementation notice.  This will affect the RUC soundings tool ([<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov">rucsoundings.noaa.gov</a>]) and the Current Icing Product and Forecast Icing Product that both use the RUC.<br />
<br />
I know some pilots use the RUC soundings, however, I am not sure how the interface will change.  For the moment, the RUC will still be run for the next six months, so things won't change until then.  Right now, there is a RR1h option for the Rapid Refresh that has been on the data entry page for the RUC soundings.  That should remain available.  I'll post more as I find out some info from the developers.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2012 07:59:51 -0400</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?28,437,437#msg-437</guid>
            <title>(tu) Archived Two Minute Video Tips (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?28,437,437#msg-437</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ <hr class="bbcode" /><span style="color: #FF0000">*Please note that Adobe Flash is required.</span>  <br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/daily_wx/January%2031,%202012/player.html">Precipitation type depiction on radar</a><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/daily_wx/September%202,%202010/player.html">Three thousand foot rule with respect to icing</a><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/daily_wx/June%2029,%202010/player.html">Storm Cell Identification & Tracking (SCIT) markers</a><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/daily_wx/January%205,%202011/player.html">A recent change to TAFs for some airports</a><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/daily_wx/December%202,%202011/player.html">Training effect</a><br />
<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/daily_wx/December%2014,%202011/player.html">ASOS Precipitation Type</a><br />
<hr class="bbcode" /><br />
<span style="color: #0000CC">More to be added later...</span><br />
<hr class="bbcode" />]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Two Minute Video Tip Archives</category>
            <pubDate>Tue, 06 Dec 2011 17:42:12 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?2,435,435#msg-435</guid>
            <title>What's causing the light snow precip over midwest (1 reply)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?2,435,435#msg-435</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ I found it interesting how light snow showers were produced over KS, MO, and moving into IL at this time as this was not mentioned in forecasts on Monday the 5th of December.  There is nothing obvious on surface chart that one would anticipate any precipitation in this region.<br />
<br />
The AFD reports for STL [<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://kamala.cod.edu/mo/latest.fxus63.KLSX.html">kamala.cod.edu</a>] show a shortwave trough ahead of a positively tilted upper level trough is providing the lifting.d<br />
<br />
Interestingly it looks like the cloud depth is very small, just a few thousand feet and below 9k' or so based on KSTL sounding.<br />
<br />
The 500mb chart is showing a very positive tilt to the trough<br />
[<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/12/nam_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif">mag.ncep.noaa.gov</a>]<br />
<br />
How does one identify the "short wave" on the upper charts? ...and does anyone have more detail on what is generating the precip?  Could it be temps falling just precipitating out the clouds?]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Bryan Heitman</dc:creator>
            <category>General Discussion</category>
            <pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 15:47:44 -0500</pubDate>
        </item>
        <item>
            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,426,426#msg-426</guid>
            <title>River and valley fog (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,426,426#msg-426</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ It is fairly common during the late summer and early fall to see valley and river fog through the Appalachian Mountains in the overnight hours and into the morning.  This often occurs as a result of radiational cooling and higher moisture content in and around the rivers, lakes and streams.  Colder air also tends to settle into the valleys.  For airports in these regions, very low IFR conditions may persist for several hours after sunset.  Here an example from the visible satellite image at 1301 UTC from one morning in the middle of September.<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/River-Valley-Fog.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/River-Valley-Fog.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
Looking at the METARs below there are only a few airports reporting very low IFR  conditions (magenta filled circles) throughout the region.  Most airports are reporting clear below 12,000 feet (green squares) albeit, most of these airports are not in the river valleys. <br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/River-Valley-Fog-METARs.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/River-Valley-Fog-METARs.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
Since this is not considered widespread due to its isolated nature, you will not see this event covered by AIRMET Sierra and it many not be mentioned in an Area Forecast (FA)for the same reasons.  There was an AIRMET for IFR conditions covering most of the West Virginia area on this morning (shown below), but the fog in western North Carolina wasn't covered in any AIRMET.<br />
<br />
<center class="bbcode"><img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/River-Valley-Fog-AIRMETs.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/River-Valley-Fog-AIRMETs.gif" /></center><br />
<br />
AIRMET Sierra for West Virginia<br />
<br />
WAUS41 KKCI 180845 <br />
   BOSS WA 180845 <br />
   AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 2 FOR IFR AND MTN OBSCN VALID UNTIL 181500 <br />
   AIRMET IFR...PA OH WV MD VA <br />
   FROM AIR TO EMI TO CSN TO HMV TO HNN TO AIR <br />
   CIG BLW 010. CONDS ENDG 15Z.<br />
<br />
The area forecast issued at 0845 UTC for western NC didn't mention this either. <br />
<br />
Area Forecast<br />
<br />
FAUS42 KKCI 180845<br />
FA2W  <br />
MIAC FA 180845<br />
SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX<br />
SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 190300<br />
CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 182100...OTLK VALID 182100-190300<br />
NC SC GA FL AND CSTL WTRS E OF 85W<br />
.<br />
SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCN.<br />
TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS.<br />
NON MSL HGTS DENOTED BY AGL OR CIG.<br />
.<br />
SYNOPSIS...09Z CDFNT FM SC CSTL WTRS SWWD TO NRN FL PEN TO<br />
GLFMEX. 12Z CDFNT FM 200ENE OMN SWWD TO CNTRL FL PEN TO GLFMEX.<br />
FNT WL BECM STNRY AFT 14Z.<br />
.<br />
<strong class="bbcode">NC<br />
APLCNS...SCT070. TIL 14Z VIS 3-5SM BR. OTLK...VFR.<br />
RMNDR...SCT050. TIL 14Z VIS 3-5SM BR. OTLK...VFR.<br />
</strong><br />
Overall it is very important to examine multiple sources including the visible satellite image before departing for a flight.  While AIRMETs, FAs and terminal forecasts may be silent on IFR conditions along your proposed route, there certainly can be patches of low IFR that may exist especially in the early morning hours.  So when flying to smaller airports in the river valley areas, the visible satellite image may be your best friend.]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2011 09:20:58 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,425,425#msg-425</guid>
            <title>Freezing level and the 500 mb chart (no replies)</title>
            <link>http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?8,425,425#msg-425</link>
            <description><![CDATA[ I don't have to look at the freezing level chart to know where the lowest freezing levels are going to be.  I can also look at the 500 mb chart which shows me the height of the 500 mb surface.  The <u class="bbcode">lower</u> the 500 mb surface, the <u class="bbcode">colder</u> the air is in that region below 500 mb.  <br />
<br />
Here's an example of a 500 mb chart with a trough centered just off the southwestern coast of California.<br />
<br />
<img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/nam_500_012s_109.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/nam_500_012s_109.gif" /><br />
<br />
The lowest freezing levels are going to be in the center of this trough as you can see from the 8-hr freezing level forecast below.  Normally a height of 5400 meters (540 line) equates to a freezing level near mean sea level.  Nevertheless, the 500 mb chart isn't a way to identify an absolute freezing level (such as 3,000 feet), but freezing level forecasts as shown above only go out to 12 hours on <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://aviationweather.gov/adds/icing/frzg_nav.php">ADDS</a> (18 hours for those that have access to the <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow"  href="http://avwxworkshops.com/forum/read.php?9,10,10#msg-10">Internet Wx Brief Roadmap</a>).  So if you are looking two or three days in advance to get a sense of the freezing level along your route, try looking at the 500 mb chart.  <br />
<br />
<img src="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/ruc07hr_lvl_frzg_906.gif" class="bbcode" alt="http://avwxworkshops.com/etips/images/ruc07hr_lvl_frzg_906.gif" />]]></description>
            <dc:creator>Scott Dennstaedt</dc:creator>
            <category>Scott's Aviation Weather Blog</category>
            <pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2011 08:53:10 -0500</pubDate>
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