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These improvements include an upgraded radiation and cloud package, upgraded specification of gravity wave drag, a higher resolution grid for hurricane relocation, an upgraded boundary layer scheme, the use of a higher resolution snow analysis, a new mass flux shallow convection scheme and an updated deep convection scheme. Also, the model will have a horizontal resolution of 27 km through 192 hours in support of the GFS MOS development, which is an additional 12 hours from the previous version. The model’s resolution from 192 to 384 hours will remain at 70 km. Finally, the availability of three hourly forecast output will be extended out to 192 hours from 180 hours.

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Karl Swenson
My dream addition would be where an auto call to your cellphone would be made with significant weather differences. As an example I was at 1B2 (Katama) on Marthas Vineyard. I knew (from your help) that fog could be likely. I looked to the SE at a tower about 5 miles out and at the clouds under the mostly sunny sky. I periodically called the MVY ATIS (and other local airports). With my wife sleeping, I called MVY (about 10 miles away) ATIS and they were reporting a 800 overcast fog from the SE rolling in. We buggied safely out of 1B2. It would have been ideal if I could have recorded my cell phone and requested an alert with a significant change in weather. The grey lady almost caught us. People leaving over the next 20 minutes were looking to pick up IFR clearances.

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Karl Swenson
In flight we use a sat downlink to the Garmin 496 for airport metars and precip with our stormscope. I read your comment on PIREPS, I try to give them, although when I recorded info off the 430W (checked by the 496) for E6B readings on upper level winds. I gave them as a PIREP (but I bet the WX obs thought I was smoking something for the 4500 ft winds aloft). I was going under the impression of trust your instruments.

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Dana Anderson
1a I find skew-T LogP diagrams among the most useful of weather flight-planning products. You are the only one I know of who teaches them to some depth in the aviation context. They are indeed complicated compared to other products, but I would like to see their utility reach a broader audience. My flying partners ooooohhh and aaaahhhh as though my ability to estimate cloud bases and tops is magical.

1b By the same token, a 3D flight path presentation of the Skew-T forecasts would be extremely valuable. I find myself sampling diagrams along and on either side of a flight path to determine how I might change my path in case of weather problems. Flying east from Nevada to Boulder in 2008 for example, I knew from Skew-T’s that north was the direction to go should icing begin to be a problem. Which it did become and diverting to the north did solve the problem. North was counter-intuitive, but correct.

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Dana Anderson
2a You have the internet weather briefing roadmap, which is absolutely superb. I expect I am like other pilots. Sometimes a cursory weather investigation is perfectly adequate. But other times, when adverse weather is likely, one needs an increasingly in-depth investigation of weather. It would be good to have a decision tree/flow diagram: “if this is true, then look further into …”.

2b I like to do weather planning in checklist format, which, as per the above, goes more deeply into weather as the weather looks more threatening.

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Dana Anderson
4. You yourself through your site are among the best weather resources pilots have. If I read between the lines, however, there is barely enough interest to make a living out of it. That is to me worrisome and demonstrates the problem: given the number of weather related accidents you would hope for more interest (and therefore business). I was exceedingly sorry to learn you won’t be writing for IFR any longer. Apart from the pure educational material on weather products here is what I find most useful:

a) Scenario training, getting from A to B. Suppose I want to get from A to B today and these are my airplane’s capabilities. Here is today’s weather forecast. How would I get from A to B if I had to. And when would I wait for weather to improve? (When you, Scott, decide to stay on the ground, surely I should too).

b) Here is a weather forecast for today, and here was what actually happened (in the flying context).

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Dana Anderson
5. I sure like having PIREP’s to refer to both on the ground and in flight. I myself get lazy in making them, particularly when the weather is perfect anyway. I wonder if someone can come up with a PIREP rewards program. First, a (voluntary) email associated with an N-number for the weather service to say “thanks”. And perhaps a PIREP of the day/week/month/year award for number, or for significance or just randomly, anything to highlight the utility and appreciation of the GA pilot body for reporting weather on behalf of other pilots.

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As you know, the public hail criterion changed from ¾ inch to 1 inch for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings on January 5, 2010. NWS aviation products which hail criterion may be taken into account are as follows:

1) Convective SIGMET
2) Aviation Watch Notification Message
3) Airport Weather Warning (where issued)

The change in the public severe thunderstorm hail criterion did not impact the content of these products. The NWS will continue to issue these products as usual with previously established criterion.

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In order for a drop of water to become supercooled and remain liquid it must be transported from air that is above freezing to cold air rather quickly.