Something new - Trip Monitoring with your Elite membership!

     Want to save some time on your next flight?  Need a second opinion about the adverse weather you might face along your proposed route?  Trip Monitoring will save you time and give you the peace of mind with every cross country flight you make.  Note:  This is a new program and will apply all current and new Elite Members.          

     Let's say you are planning to make a flight in about a week and the weather is looking a bit concerning.  Or maybe, your outbound leg looks great, but your your return trip home looks a bit challenging.  Simply send an e-mail request with a detailed outline of your plans as soon as they are firm. 

     In your request you'll need to supply your proposed time of departure (date and approximate time), departure airport and your proposed destination airport.  It will also be important to know if you are planning to make this trip IFR or VFR and if any fuel stops will likely be necessary.  Also indicate if there are any other considerations or decision points.  For example, you may be planning to depart on Friday, but need to have your trip report by Wednesday at 1800 UTC so you can purchase airline tickets if necessary. Or your goal may be to arrive at your destination by Saturday afternoon, but you could leave as early as Thursday morning.  If you don't have any special decision points, that's okay too.  To get the best service, just pass along as many details as you can as early as possible.          

     Once we know the details of your proposed flight, you now can choose one of three options.  

        (1) You can elect to receive a written trip report by e-mail containing an analysis of the anticipated weather for your departure and destination airports as well as along your proposed route of flight.  Click here to see a sample trip report for an actual proposed flight.  

        (2) Schedule and attend an online session using GoToMeeting to be guided through a live personalized preflight analysis (all audio is done via the telephone - long distance charges may apply).    

        (3) You can also choose to discuss the analysis live over the telephone in lieu of the GoToMeeting online session (long distance charges may apply).  

     Depending on the complexity of the weather and the length of time before your departure, the written trip report may be more or less detailed than shown in the sample above. It is important to specify the date and time you need the report so it can be made available for your review in a timely manner and the latest-and-greatest weather guidance can be used to build the report.  Online and telephone sessions should be no longer than 20 - 40 minutes on average and must be scheduled in advance.

     Typically you may want an "outlook" trip report a couple of days before you depart followed by a second report the evening prior to or the day of your departure.  In most cases, only one report will be necessary, but this obviously depends on the complexity of the weather and your particular circumstances.            

What's the cost?

     If you are already an Elite member, there's no additional membership cost to join and your expiration date will remain the same.  Elite membership is now $99 per subscription year.  A single trip report for an Elite member will cost $39 each.  New Elite members and Elite members that joined on or after March 1, 2010 are entitled to one FREE trip report (unused trip reports expire after one year and cannot be rolled over, sold or exchanged for other products/services).  Please note that Elite members that joined prior to November 15, 2009 received two free online training hours that will expire at the end of your membership year. Each unused hour can be used for a single trip report at no additional cost.  Go to the My Account page (located in the top-right of the home page) to determine how many Elite member trip reports you have remaining on your account.    

Expectations 

     We all know that even with the best information, weather forecasts can be way off at times, especially for guidance beyond 48 hours.  The closer you are to your proposed time of departure, the more weather products that become available and those are likely to be much more accurate.   

     Trip Monitoring isn't a dispatch service, however.  We won't make a go or stay decision for you.  Decisions of departure time, route and altitude still rest soley with the pilot-in-command.  The report you receive is never a substitute for your briefing as required by FAR 91.103 (a) and will not contain information pertaining to NOTAMs of any kind including tempoary flight restrictions (TFRs).  

     While getting the most favorable winds is an important criteria for many pilots, the Trip Monitoring service isn't designed to provide this guidance.  It is designed primarily to minimize your exposure to adverse weather.      

     The trip report when sent via e-mail will be constructed in plain language that all certificated pilots should be able to understand.  You can certainly reply to the e-mail with questions about the report, but you must understand that an immediate and detailed reply is not guaranteed and responses will only occur on a workload-permitting basis.  If you want to ask questions, an online session or phone call is likely to be a better option.    

     All trip requests are handled on a first come, first served basis.  If you request a trip report an hour or two before your flight, there's an excellent chance we will not be able to help you.  We will do our best to squeeze in last minute requests.  However, we're not competing with the Lockheed Martin Flight Services which is available 24/7.  Reports will be made available between 9 a.m. and 10 p.m. eastern time.   Lastly, there may be a few blackout dates when the service may be unavailable for up to a week at a time.  We will let you know via e-mail as soon as possible when blackout dates are scheduled.  In general, you can expect blackout dates on holidays such as Thanksgiving, and Christmas as well as sporadic dates throughout the year.

     All reports and online sessions will be provided by Scott Dennstaedt.  Scott is a former NWS research meteorologist and FAA-certificated instrument flight instructor with over 10 years of experience conducting preflight weather with pilots of all experience levels.      

     Elite members under the new program will still enjoy a 20% discount off of online training and premium workshops such as Ice Is NOT Nice and Beyond the Wx Brief.  Any unused online training hours that you may have purchased or unused online training hours acquired through your original Elite membership can still be used for aviation weather training or can be used for additiional Trip Monitoring reports beyond the two-report maximum for each leg.  Keep in mind, that any online training acquired through your original Elite membership will expire one year from the time of the original purchase.  Other online training hours purchased separately expire two years after the original purchase.   

     You don't want to become an Elite member, but still want Trip Monitoring on a pay-as-you-go basis?  That's fine. You can always pay for this service by the report.  Each leg will count as an hour of online training.  Regular members receive a 10% discount on online training hours.  See below for the pay-as-you-go option.       

     Marginal VFR (MVFR) or IFR conditions existed in nearly 70-percent of all weather-related fatal accidents.  This is true even though many of these pilots received a preflight briefing.  In a study done by the NTSB for accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2003, the NTSB found that over 1200 pilots managed to have a weather-related accident despite the fact that they had received a preflight briefing with a Flight Service Station specialist.         

     This isn't something new.  According to an older NTSB study, over 4,000 pilots and passengers perished in a little over 2,000 weather-related accidents between 1964 and 1972.  This represented about 37-percent of the total fatal accidents during that period.  AOPA also did a study based on accidents from 1982 to 1993 that resulted in a downward trend of weather-related fatal accidents being nearly 34-percent of the total.  All of these studies concluded that a majority of the accidents were related to low ceilings, fog and attempted VFR flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). While there has been a slight downward trend over the last 20 years, the number of pilots who die in weather-related accidents is still astonishing.      

     Could it be bad weather forecasts?  Forecasts certainly are not perfect and sometimes they can be way off.  The Aviation Weather Center (AWC) issues some of the most critical forecasts for pilots 24/7 to include the area forecast (FA), AIRMETs (WA), SIGMETs (WS) and convective SIGMETs (WST).  The other important guidance comes from the terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs); those are issued by the local weather forecast offices (WFO).  Assuming the pilot interprets the forecast properly, it seems reasonable that an accident could ensue if the AWC missed an area of icing or didn't put a fence around an area of embedded thunderstorms.  Well, the NWS is actually doing a very good job since their products have been cited only a few times as a contributing or causal factor.

     Then it must be bad weather briefings?  Sometimes the decision to fly comes down to a conversation between the pilot and a flight service station specialist. The pilot is solely dependent on the specialist to identify all possible weather hazards.  If a green light is given and an advisory or forecast was overlooked, the pilot could find themselves in a situation they were not expecting.  Again, only a few accidents occurred where a briefing from a Flight Service Station specialist was a contributing or causal factor. 

     How about air traffic control (ATC)?  Once a pilot departs, ATC becomes an important safety net if the pilot need help getting around or through the weather.  Although, given the wrong advice from a controller, a pilot could easily stray into an embedded thunderstorm or be given a climb into icing conditions.  The ATC numbers are a bit higher than both the NWS guidance and flight service briefings combined, but the total number of accidents where ATC was cited as a causal or contributing factor are still very small.     

     There's only one more link to cover.  Could it be pilot error?  Bingo.  As you'd expect, pilot error is to blame in a majority of the fatal accidents.  The NWS, FSS and ATC are all doing a pretty reasonable job, but pilots are just not making good decisions and they are not heeding the guidance provided by the NWS and/or FSS.  VFR into IMC was cited as the number one cause for weather-related fatal accidents.  It's not all the scary stuff like thunderstorms, severe turbulence and icing that are killing the most pilots...it is the relatively tame, clouds, fog, reduced visibility and precipitation that is causing the most pilots to die in an aircraft when weather is to blame.  
 
     According to an April 2002 article in the FAA publication Aviation News, "Unfortunately there is an insidious force that works to flaw our rational decision making."  This is the little voice in the pilot's head that says, "it worked the last time."  The article goes on to say, "Whether it is inadequate preflight planning, pushing a fuel supply or taking a 'look and see' at forecast bad weather, the force often starts out weak and allows bad decisions to pass.  But each exposure the force strengthens and further clouds good decision making.  Eventually the force demands a high fee and catches the unwary off guard."  

     There's a lot of truth in those words.  Some pilots succumb to a previous success or two as a way to justify a future flight.  Instead of using an objective analysis with each and every flight, they often draw on their past experience - "it can't be that bad."  This is because an objective analysis requires time and talent.  It takes time to sift through the forecasts and it takes talent to understand those forecasts and how to integrate the data to make an informed objective decision. 

     Pilots tend to ignore aviation weather training because of several reasons.  First, it isn't widely available in a form that's practical.  Second, weather is a discipline that requires a challenging dialog.  Third, they've been seemingly doing just fine over the last five years or so.  They've gotten the hang of it.  There's no reason to advance their knowledge beyond their current level.  

     It is the third point that is the most dangerous.  When a pilot convinces him/herself that they "know it all" or they know enough, that's where the real problems start.  If you asked 100 pilots the last time they went out and practiced landings or went out to shoot some instrument approaches, you'd get a few dozen pilots to tell you they regularly include this in their routine flying activity.  Ask those same pilots the last time they've done any training to advance their aviation weather knowledge and you'll likely get no responses.  

     Aviation weather is perhaps the most poorly taught and the most poorly understood discipline a pilot must master.  Mother Nature does not discriminate.  It doesn't matter if you are a brand new private pilot, one that has thousands of flight hours or a seasoned professional.  Failure to expand your aviation weather knowledge is an accident waiting to happen.

    Did you know that liquid water will dominate a cloud when the cloud top temperature is -12°C or warmer? Often it is hard, if not fundamentally impossible, to determine if a cloud will contain mostly ice crystals, but there are clear cases where you can be absolutely sure a cloud contains mostly liquid water.  If the temperatures are in the right range, clouds such as this will represent a significant icing hazard, especially those that are vertically-developed.  

     Liquid water tends to become more scarce in non-convective clouds when the cloud top temperature trends below -12°C.  There's no hard line in the sand until the temperature drops below -40°C where homogeneous freezing occurs.  Whether or not the liquid water will freeze into a harmless ice crystal or build into harmless snowflakes is dependent on many factors to include liquid water content and drop size.  In a non-convective environment, large drops tend to "freeze out" more readily than smaller drops.  So if you are accreting ice in a non-convective environment at a temperature of -22°C, you are likely in a small drop scenario.  

     Large drops tend to be found at much colder temperatures in a convective environment.  Convective updrafts carry supercooled liquid water to a much higher and colder height.  That's why we can see liquid water down to temperatures as cold as -30°C in thunderstorms.                          

     Consider purchasing one or more hours of online training to review the weather prior to your flight.  Using GoToMeeting, we will guide you through a detailed online preflight analysis designed to minimize your exposure to adverse weather.  Or you also have the option of receiving a detailed trip report via e-mail.  If you are interested in this service, simply send an e-mail to contact@avwxworkshops.com or call (704) 759-6601 to schedule your online session with former NWS meteorologist and CFI, Scott C. Dennstaedt.  Prices start as low as $79 per trip report.  Click here to visit the online training page for more information.  Regular members of AvWxWorkshops.com receive a 10% discount for any online training purchased.

We know that standard atmospheric pressure is 29.92" Hg.  What is the standard in millibars?

• A.  992.5 mb
• B.  1092.0 mb
• C.  1013.2 mb 
• D.  None of the above.  

Answer will appear in the next issue of the quarterly e-Newsletter.  

For lightning to develop within a growing convective system, the following is necessary to be present in the cloud?

Answer:  d.  All of the above.

Lightning won't develop unless the convection has reached well above the melting level (0°C).  Supercooled liquid water, vapor-borne ice crystals and graupel all must be present simultaneously (in the same location) for natural lightning to occur.  If you are missing any one of these three ingredients in sufficient quantity within deep, moist convection, you can't officially call it a thunderstorm.  Typically this occurs with low-topped convection or in convection with weak updrafts.  Strong updrafts are typically responsible for carrying the supercooled liquid water up to the higher level where it is needed.  Highly sheared convection such as found in a tropical storm or hurricane also has trouble carrying supercooled liquid water upward since the "updafts" are highly skewed or tilted with height. It is not unusual for tropical convection and hurricanes carry little or no lightning.  Even the remnants of these tropical systems after landfall will have very little lightning, but the convection will spawn small tornadoes.      

Here's what's coming up in our next e-Newsletter:

• Have we reached a new era in aviation weather or will we limp along for the next 10 years?