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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model
extended to 18 hours! 
The Rapid Update Cycle (also known as the RUC)
model is undergoing some changes. Pilots are likely unaware
of how much this model is part of the forecasts they depend on every
day. On March 2, 2010, the RUC was extended operationally
from producing a forecast out to 12 hours to producing a forecast out
to 18 hours in the future. The exciting thing about the RUC
is that the forecast is updated each and every hour and the standard
forecast interval is one hour. That means you can get a forecast that's
valid 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, 4 hours ..., 17 hours or 18
hours in the future.
This is great news for all pilots.
Just visit the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Winds/Temps and
choose the time drop down box. You'll immediately see that an
hourly forecast is available for winds and temperatures aloft on an
hour by hour basis out to 18 hours as shown in the example above.
This forecast is derived from the RUC model. Click here to view a larger
image.
Therefore, if your planned departure time is 14 hours from now, you'll
be able to see a forecast for the winds (or temperatures) at that time.
Previously, it was necessary to interpolate between the
12-hour RUC forecast and 18-hour NAM forecast.
Barring any major delays, in October
2010, the RUC model will be undergoing another major change.
It will be transitioned over to the  Weather
Research and Forecasting - Rapid Refresh (WRF-RR) model.
Among other things, this will increase the domain of the RUC
model to include more than
just the conterminous 48 U.S. states. WRF-RR domain will
include Alaska,
Canada, Mexico and the Carbibean as shown in the image to the left.
Click here to view a larger image.
This will pave the way for the Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) to
be extended
to 18 hours as well. The RUC is the model used to
produce the icing potential field. The first step will be to
calibrate FIP as described in this e-Tip. After that
occurs, FIP will be converted over to use the WRF-RR model in October
2010. At that point, FIP may transition to an 18-hour icing
forecast. Since there has been little calibration testing
beyond 12 hours, there's a good chance that extending FIP to 18 hours
may require more extensive testing.
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